2012 Week 7 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/18/2012: A crucial matchup in the surprisingly stout NFC West is on tap for Thursday night when the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) go on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers (4-2). After dominating the division last year and nearly reaching the Super Bowl, San Francisco was expected to cruise to a second straight NFC West crown. However, the winner of Thursday’s game is only assured of a tie atop the standings depending on what the Arizona Cardinals do this weekend. Overall, all four teams in the NFC West are at or above .500 entering Week 7, and every win is important, especially one within the division. Playing at home, the 49ers are seven-point favorites.
On the field, the teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams rely heavily on the run game on offense, and both have excellent all-around defenses. San Francisco actually owns the top rushing attack in the NFL, while Seattle has the seventh-best run game led by the NFC’s leading rusher Marshawn Lynch. Defensively, the Seahawks are allowing the second-fewest points per game, while the 49ers rank third in scoring defense. In terms of total yards, San Francisco and Seattle rank first and fourth, respectively. Needless to say, this game is going to be a tough, physical battle in the trenches with plenty of hard hits being dished out by both sides.
The Seahawks Win If:
With rookie quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the Seahawks need this game to be played at a slow pace and in an ugly style more so than the 49ers. Seattle’s defense currently ranks second against the run, and the unit will need to shut down Frank Gore and the San Francisco ground game in this one. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ own running game has to take some of the pressure off Wilson. Lynch doesn’t need a lot of big runs, but he will need to be able to keep the clock running and keep Seattle in manageable third down situations. If Seattle can hold the 49ers somewhere around the 20-point mark and use its defense to control field possession, Wilson has already shown throughout the year that he can make the one or two big plays needed to win a close game.
The 49ers Win If:
The game plan for San Francisco on defense is simple. If they shut down Lynch and the Seattle running game, the Seahawks are going to struggle to score points and even move the ball down the field. Offensively, the 49ers have to make sure not to play at Seattle’s pace. Granted, San Francisco is a run-first team, as well, but quarterback Alex Smith has been a solid counterpunch this season. If Smith can hit a few big plays early in the game and get the 49ers the lead, the San Francisco defense will be able to pin its ears back and attack Wilson. If the 49ers can force the Seahawks to abandon their running game and have to play from behind, Seattle doesn’t have the consistency in the passing game to compete.
Bottom Line:
Coming off their first game of the season, the 49ers should be focused for Thursday’s showdown with a division rival. More importantly, they have a more balanced offense and an equally stout defense going against a Seahawks’ team that is 0-2 on the road against NFC West opponents this season. However, Seattle has also shown it can grind things out against any opponent. The Seahawks have won three of their four games by four points or less, including wins over Green Bay and New England, and they haven’t lost a game by more than six points. While Wilson and company don’t have enough firepower to knock of the 49ers at home, Settle’s defense and commitment to the run game will allow them to keep things close and cover the spread.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (+7) Cover the Spread
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: San Francisco -7
Total: Over /Under 38
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network
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