2012 Week 11 NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/15/2012: In the AFC East, there are the New England Patriots and then everybody else. Two of the teams in the latter category will square off Thursday night when the Miami Dolphins (4-5) go on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-6). While neither team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, these teams are already playing for next season.
Offensively, both of those teams have limitations. Miami is starting rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and while he has shown flashes of his talent, he has just five touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. Meanwhile, running back Reggie Bush hasn’t been able to find the consistency that allowed him to top 1,000 yards last season. The end result has been an offense that ranks outside the top 15 in both rushing and passing. Buffalo at least ranks in the top 10 in rushing, but thanks to a struggling passing attack led by turnover-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, consistent scoring has been tough for the Bills to find this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has been a disaster. High-priced free agent Mario Williams has done nothing to bolster the defensive front, and if anything, the Bills are even worse than they were last season. Buffalo currently ranks dead last in scoring defense and dead last in rushing defense. Miami on the other hand ranks in the top five against the end run, and defensive end Cameron Wake is one of the better edge rushers in the league. Overall, the Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in scoring defense, but a suspect secondary that has allowed some big plays has caused problems at times.
The Dolphins Win If:
Buffalo has the worst scoring defense in the NFL and the worst rushing defense. Miami has to take advantage and establish a running game that has been mediocre for most of the year. If Bush has a big game and is able to consistently move the chains, Miami will be able to mask its issues at the QB spot and put points on the board. Defensively, the Dolphins need to limit Buffalo’s big plays in the passing game. If Miami has to play from behind and out the game in the hands of Tannehill, the Dolphins are going to be in trouble. If they control the tempo of the game on the ground on other hand, they are going to be in good shape.
The Bills Win If:
While Buffalo’s run defense has been horrible, the offense does have its share of weapons. Facing a Miami team that doesn’t have much of a passing game, getting out to an early lead will be crucial. If the Bills can put the Dolphins in an early hole, Miami will be forced to abandon the running game, eliminating Buffalo’s biggest defensive deficiency. More importantly, putting Miami in an early hole will force Tannehill and the passing game to try to win the game. If this game becomes a high-scoring game decided by quarterback play, the Bills will have a huge advantage,
Bottom Line:
Believe or not, an injury to Buffalo running back Fred Jackson might end up being the reason the Bills win this game. Spiller is averaging an incredible 7.3 yards per carry this year, and he is a much more explosive weapon in both the running game and passing game. Buffalo’s biggest friend in this matchup could be some early points, and having Spiller on the field more often will only increase the Bills’ chances of hitting some big plays and putting points on the board. Meanwhile, Bush and the Miami offense have been inconsistent all year and are coming off a horrible three-point performance against a Tennessee defense that has been just as bad as Buffalo. Neither team is great, but Miami isn’t going to be able to muster enough offense with a rookie QB and an inconsistent running game to take down the Bills on the road.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-3) Cover the Spread
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Buffalo -3
Total: Over/Under 45
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network
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