2012 Week 9 NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/1/2012: Not all primetime games in the NFL are a battle of heavyweights, and Thursday night’s meeting between the San Diego Chargers (3-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) is a reminder of that fact. After opening the year with a 3-1 record, the Chargers are riding a three-game losing streak heading into Thursday’s game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have dropped four straight. Something has to give when these AFC West rivals meet for the second time this year. San Diego knocked of Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium 37-20 in late September, and the Chargers are eight-point favorites at home in the rematch.
Neither team has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball. San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers doesn’t look like the same player he was three years ago, and running back Ryan Matthews has yet to become the player the Chargers traded up in the draft to take. The end result has been an offense that ranks 20th or worse in both passing yards and rushing yards and is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Of course, Kansas City has been even worse when it comes to putting points on the board. Despite owning the third-best rushing attack led by Jamaal Charles, a QB carousel between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn has resulted in the Chiefs averaging the third-fewest points in the NFL.
The story isn’t much better on defense either, but thanks to a stout rushing defense that ranks second in the NFL, San Diego does rank ninth in scoring defense. That being said, the Chargers’ secondary has been vulnerable, and they have been unable to force many turnovers or pressure opposing QBs. However, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t been able to do any of those things either, and worse yet, the Chiefs haven’t been able to keep opponents out of the end zone. Entering Thursday’s game, Kansas City owns the third-worst scoring defense and is allowing almost 30 points a game.
The Chiefs Win If:
Kansas City’s lone bright spot this season has been its rushing attack, and Charles is the type of back that can turn any carry into a score. He needs to have a big game running the ball Thursday if the Chiefs want to put points on the board. Meanwhile, Cassel, Quinn or whoever ends up under center needs to avoid turning the ball over. Kansas City isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to miss out on points or give San Diego good field position because of their own mistakes. For the record, Kansas City actually outgained the Chargers in their earlier meeting but handed away the game thanks to six turnovers. The bottom line is that if the Chiefs establish the run and can ride Charles up and down the field, they can put up enough points to outscore a Chargers’ offense that doesn’t exactly have a lot of weapons either.
The Chargers Win If:
Corey Liuget, Aubrayo Franklin and the rest of the San Diego defensive line have been stout all year long, and if they deliver again Thursday, the Chargers are going to be in great shape. Kansas City’s passing situation under center is a joke, and if Charles is taken out of the picture, the Chiefs are going to struggle to score points. Meanwhile, San Diego needs to establish a ground game of its own against a weak Kansas City run defense in order to set up Rivers with opportunities to find Robert Meachem and Malcolm Floyd in down the field in the play-action passing game. If the Chargers stop the run on defense and use the run to open up their big play passing game on offense, the Chiefs won’t be able to keep pace.
Bottom Line:
While the Chargers can’t count on the Chiefs shooting themselves in the foot to the tune of six turnovers two games in a row, they can count on poor play from whoever is under center for Kansas City. As a result, an already stingy San Diego run defense should be able to focus in on Charles and the Kansas City ground attack. The Chiefs haven’t been scoring anyway, and they certainly won’t be doing much scoring if their best player is held in check. Meanwhile, San Diego’s own offense should look a little better this time around now that Matthews is starting at running back. The former first-round pick was essentially benched for most of the first meeting with Kansas City as punishment for a red zone fumble. With Matthews in the backfield from the start, the Chargers will have the balance needed to capitalize on the struggling Kansas City defense. Throw in the fact that San Diego is at home, and the Chargers will pick up a win against one of the NFL’s worst teams.
Prediction: San Diego Chargers (-7) Cover the Spread
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: San Diego -7
Total: Over/Under 42
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network
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