2012 Week 10 NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/8/2012: Both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars have drafted what they hope will be franchise quarterbacks the past two seasons. At 1-7, year two of the Blaine Gabbert experiment continues to go poorly for Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is sitting at 5-3 with rookie Andrew Luck under center, and the No. 1 overall pick has already set a rookie record for most passing yards in a single game and has tied the record for most 300-plus yard performances by a rookie. Needless to say, Indianapolis has to be feeling a lot better about its decision than Jacksonville does about the choice it made two years ago, and the two teams are headed in opposite directions as they prepare to meet Thursday night. The Colts have won three straight games to climb into the playoff conversation while the Jaguars have dropped five straight and are looking like the frontrunner for next year’s No. 1 pick. Not surprisingly, Indianapolis is a three-point favorite on the road.
The two teams are also polar opposites in terms of offensive production. Luck has the Indianapolis passing game firing on all cylinders, ranking sixth in the NFL. Receiver Reggie Wayne has been on the best players at his position, and rookies T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen have made a surprisingly quick impact. On the flip side, Jacksonville has the worst passing offense in the NFL and ranks 28th in rushing. Granted, an injury to star back Maurice Jones-Drew has hurt the Jaguars ground attack, but the scoreboard doesn’t lie. Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 14.6 points.
Defensively, neither side looks great on paper. Both teams rank among the bottom 10 in the NFL in points allowed, and Jacksonville does rank 25th or worse against both the run and pass. Indianapolis on the other hand has shown signs of improvement. Pass rushing specialist Robert Mathis has gotten healthy in recent weeks, and the Colts have responded by allowing 20 points or less in each of their last three games.
The Colts Win If:
Plain and simple, the Jaguars are a terrible offensive team. If the Colts can turn Thursday’s contest into a high-scoring game, they are going to be in the driver’s seat. Luck does have to make sure he doesn’t get too aggressive against a weak Jacksonville secondary and take unnecessary risks, but as long as the Indianapolis doesn’t stop itself, the Colts are going to score points. Meanwhile, the improving Indianapolis defense just needs to keep the momentum going. As long as the Colts take away any big plays from the Jaguars’ offense, Gabbert and company are to have a hard time generating any consistent scoring.
The Jaguars Win If:
When the Jaguars went into Indianapolis earlier in the year and earned what remains their only win of the year, they did it on the strength of two big plays. Gabbert connected on an 80-yard touchdown pass, Jones-Drew ripped off a 59-yard touchdown run, and the Jaguars didn’t have any turnovers. Jacksonville will need to follow a similar recipe for success this time around to make up for an offense that can’t generate consistent yards or afford to give up any easy scores to the opposition. The Jaguars can’t win a shootout, but if they can keep the score around the 20-point mark, they have already shown they can hit the one or two plays needed to pull out a win.
Bottom Line:
Jacksonville hasn’t scored more than 23 points all year and has scored 15 points or less five times. Yes, the Jaguars did go into Indianapolis and knock off the Colts in Week 3, but they haven’t won a game since while Luck and company have gone 4-1 since the loss. More importantly, Jacksonville will be without the services of Jones-Drew this weekend, and he was an integral part of the Jaguars’ ability to control the clock and keep the ball out of Luck’s hands. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ defense is healthy and playing the best it has all season, and Luck has thrown for at least 280 yards in four of his last five games. Plain and simple, the Colts are healthy and playing well while the Jaguars are slumping and missing their only true offensive weapon. Indianapolis gets some revenge and picks up a win on the road.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (-3) Cover the Spread
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3.5
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network
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