2012 Week 5 NFL Monday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans @ NY Jets Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/8/2012: Although technically a battle between a pair of first-place teams, Monday night’s meeting between the Houston Texans and New York Jets doesn’t exactly feel like a marquee matchup. After all, Houston is 4-0 and is looking like the clear favorite in its division and a frontrunner in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Jets tied for first in the AFC East at 2-2, but have lost their best offensive and defensive player for the year and are coming off an ugly 34-0 loss against San Francisco last weekend at home. Momentum is definitely on the Texans’ side, and even though they are on the road, they are eight-point favorites.
Offensively, the edge goes to the Texans. Houston has scored 27 or more points in all four games and has scored 30 or more three times. The strength of the offense is Arian Foster and the running game, but quarterback Matt Schuab is a very efficient counterpunch. On the year, Schaub has seven touchdowns to just one interception, and he is completing 67 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense ranks 24th in rushing and 27th in passing, and those numbers could get even worse now that receiver Santonio Holmes is out of the year.
Houston should also have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. Led by young stars like linebacker Brian Cushing and defensive end J.J. Watt, the Texans’ defense currently ranks second against the pass and 11th against the run. Granted, New York currently owns the second-best pass defense, but those numbers will be slipping now that shutdown corner Darrelle Revis is out for the year. More importantly, the Jets own the second-worst run defense in the NFL.
The Texans Wins If:
Houston just has to stick with its winning formula in this one, and the Texans should move to 5-0. Houston has an excellent rushing attack and Foster and Ben Tate should find plenty of running room against a porous New York defensive front. As long as Schaub continues to make smart decisions and remains the same efficient passer he has been all year, the Texans should deliver another 30-plus point performance. Against a sputtering New York offense that lacks any playmakers, 30 points will be more than enough for Houston to win comfortably. The Texans young, athletic defense will come at New York QB Mark Sanchez early and often, and unless Sanchez suddenly figures out how to create big plays, things will get ugly for the Jets.
The Jets Wins If:
If the Jets are going to pull off an upset, they will have to turn this game ugly from the opening kickoff. New York needs to grind things out on the ground and control the clock as much as possible. Defensively, the Jets will need to stack the box against Foster and use the exotic blitz packages that have had success for the team in the past. If New York can somehow keep this a low-scoring game, they have a shot. If they have to approach 30 points to win, it isn’t going to happen.
Bottom Line:
This game has a chance to be just as much of a mismatch as the Jets’ last game was. Granted, Houston’s defense might not be as good as San Francisco’s, but it is close. More importantly, the Texans have a much better offense. Foster and the ground game will control things for the Texans, and Schaub will find a few big plays against Jets’ Revis-less secondary. Throw in some more ugly offense from Sanchez and company, and the most exciting thing New York fans might see is a Tim Tebow sighting. Houston wins big in this one.
Prediction: Houston Texans (-8) Cover the Spread
Houston Texans @ NY Jets
Line: Houston -8.5
Total: Over/Under 40.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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