2012 Week 6 NFL MNF Picks: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 10/15/2012: The top spot in the AFC West will be up for grabs Monday night when the Denver Broncos (2-3) go on the road to face the San Diego Chargers (3-2). The game will also be a measuring stick for two teams that have faced very different levels of competition in the early going. Denver’s three losses have come against Atlanta, Houston and New England, while San Diego’s three wins have come against Tennessee, Oakland and Kansas City. Are the Broncos a victim of tough competition, and are the Chargers just feasting on the bottom feeders of the league? Both sides will get a chance to answer those questions Monday night in a game that is getting an even line.
After leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Broncos have converted to pass-first team with Peyton Manning now under center. The Broncos currently rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards, but they have maintained some balance, ranking in the middle of the pack in rushing. San Diego, on the other hand, ranks in the middle of the pack in both rushing and passing yards. However, those numbers could be trending up now that starting running back Ryan Matthews is healthy and offseason signee Robert Meachem is finding a rhythm with quarterback Phillip Rivers. More importantly, the two teams have been almost even where it counts with Denver averaging just 2.2 more points per game than the Chargers.
On the defensive side of the ball, the two teams have had opposite issues. Denver’s strong pass rush and experienced secondary has been stout against the pass, but the Broncos have been gashed on the ground. Meanwhile, the Chargers have stuffed the run on defense but have been torched time and time again by the pass. For the year, the Chargers are allowing just 2.2 points less per game the Broncos.
The Broncos Win If:
Manning has had at least 330 passing yards in three straight games and has thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions during the stretch. Facing a San Diego team with a suspect secondary and a mediocre pass rush, he has to have another big game. If Denver starts scoring early and builds an early lead, the Broncos are going to be in business. If Rivers and company have to abandon the running game and play catch-up, Denver is going to be able to mask its weak run defense while turning loose is solid pass rush. A strong showing from Manning and the offense will be key.
The Chargers Win If:
While Rivers is a solid QB in his own right, the Chargers don’t want to get into a shootout with Manning. That strategy didn’t work against the Saints, and it probably won’t work against the Broncos. San Diego needs to establish Matthews and the running game early, controlling the clock and setting up some big play opportunities with the play-action pass. If the Chargers take advantage of Denver’s poor run defense, they can neutralize Manning and win the game.
Bottom Line:
San Diego has faced two elite quarterbacks this season in Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. The Chargers are 0-2 in those games and have allowed an average of 29.0 points. Manning may not quite be back to 100 percent, but he is more than healthy enough to light up a mediocre San Diego secondary. Granted, the Denver defense hasn’t been an elite unit either, but the Broncos do have a pair of solid cornerbacks that will limit the big plays in the passing game that Rivers and company rely on. In the end, Manning is able to put more points on the board than Rivers and propel the Broncos to a big road win within the division.
Prediction: Denver Broncos Win the Game
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: San Diego -1
Total: Over/Under 48
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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