Free 2012 NFL NFC Championship Game Picks: New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoffs Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on FOX 1/22/12: The NFC Championship Game was supposed to be a battle of the top-two scoring offenses in the NFL with MVP candidates Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees going back and forth in high-scoring shootout. Well, the San Francisco 49ers (14-3) and the New York Giants (11-7) had other ideas, and the two underdogs will meet Sunday in San Francisco with a trip to Super Bowl XLVI up for grabs. The 49ers enter the matchup fresh off a last-second victory over the New Orleans Saints last weekend, while the Giants dispatched the defending champion Packers the next day. There should be no shortage of confidence for either side as they prepare for Sunday’s conference title game, with San Francisco looking to recapture the franchise’s glory years and New York trying to repeat the magic that led to a Super Bowl title in 2007. Playing at home, the 49ers are 2 ½-point favorites.
Sunday’s game is a rematch of a regular season meeting that the 49ers won 27-20 in San Francisco. New York outgained San Francisco in the matchup, but the 49ers picked off Giants’ quarterback twice and kicker David Akers hit four field goals to seal the win for Jim Harbaugh’s bunch. That being said, a lot has changed since the November meeting. Neither team was at full strength in the first showdown, with 49ers’ running back Frank Gore battling an injury and New York fighting injuries to its defensive line. More importantly, the urgency and focus for both teams will be a bit different with the NFC title hanging in the balance.
Offensively, the two teams have very different philosophies. Manning and the Giants are a pass-first team, taking advantage of a trio of strong receivers. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks both topped 1,100 yards this season, and Mario Manningham has been putting up equally impressive numbers since becoming healthy. Manning took full advantage of his targets, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards. Meanwhile, San Francisco had a top-10 rushing offense, using Gore and an excellent offensive line to wear down opponents and control the clock.
Despite the differing style on offense, both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball. San Francisco has the statistical edge, giving up the second-fewest points in the NFL this season and completely shutting down opposing rushers. The Giants aren’t as impressive on paper, but their defensive line wasn’t fully healthy until the end of the regular season. At full strength, New York held the top-scoring Green Bay offense to just 20 points last weekend, and the Giants still managed to finish tied for third in the NFL with 48.0 sacks. Sunday’s game could easily take on a defensive feel.
The two critical matchups are going to be the San Francisco secondary versus Manning and the Giants receivers and the 49ers’ offensive line against Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and the New York defensive line. As Brees and his 400-plus yards showed last weekend, big plays are available against San Francisco’s pass defense. However, Manning will have to avoid the turnovers that killed New York in the earlier meeting. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ offensive line that features a pair of Pro Bowlers has to keep QB Alex Smith upright and has to create some running lanes for Gore.
The X-factor in the game could be Smith. After being labeled a bust for most of his career, he came out of nowhere to lead the 49ers on a game-winning drive last weekend, playing near perfect football in the fourth quarter. If he can duplicate the performance, the San Francisco offense becomes much more dangerous. However, his breakout performance came against a New Orleans defense that hasn’t been able to pressure QBs all season. New York won’t let Smith sit in the pocket, and he will have to prove he can make tough throws while on the run.
Sunday’s game has a chance to be a hard-hitting, last-man-standing type of battle. Neither team was supposed to make it this far, and they aren’t going to be afraid to pull out all the stops to earn a trip to the Super Bowl. In the end, Manning’s ability to make big plays in crunch time should pay off. From converting long third downs on a regular basis to setting a record for touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, he has been about as clutch as a player can be this season. As far as Smith has come this year, Manning is still the more trustworthy option on the big stage. With some big throws from Manning and plenty of heat from the defensive line, the Giants should be able to the job done as an underdog for the third time in as many weeks.
Prediction: New York Giants (+2 ½) Cover the Spread
Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New York Giants +2.5
| NFL Playoff Football: New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Date: 1/22/2012 Time: 6:30 PM EST on FOX Vegas Odds – Favorite: San Francisco -2.5 | Total: Over/Under 42 |
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