2012 Free NFL Picks: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Odds and Predictions 9/5/12

2012 NFL Picks: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/5/2012: A pair of division rivals will open the 2012 NFL season when the New York Giants play host to the Dallas Cowboys. The two teams last met in last year’s regular season finale with the NFC East and a playoff spot up for grabs. New York won the game, won the division and went on to win the Super Bowl for the second time in five years. In many ways, these two franchises are complete opposites. The Giants don’t make many headlines until the postseason rolls around, while the Cowboys make nothing but headlines during the regular season and either miss the postseason completely or exit without winning a game. Despite the drastic differences in success, there is still no love lost between these teams. Both sides always seem to get up for the matchup, but fresh of a championship, the Giants are four-point favorites.

The game figures to be a high-scoring affair. Both teams bring excellent passing attacks and below average running games to the table, and both sides have questions about their secondary with the Giants dealing with injuries and the Cowboys breaking in rookie Morris Claiborne. In fact, New York and Dallas both ranked in the top seven in passing yards per game last year, and both ranked among the seven worst teams in terms of defending a pass. Given the numbers, it isn’t hard to understand why the two sides combined to score 116 points in their two meetings last year.

In terms of offensive firepower, there isn’t a shortage on either side. The Giants had arguably the most productive receiver tandem in the NFL last year in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Both players have the speed to stretch the field, and while Nicks has the size that makes him a red zone nightmare, Cruz is one of the more dynamic players in the open field. Dallas counters with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, and in terms of talent, the two can rival any duo in the league. Injuries and off-field issues on the part of Bryant have kept both from reaching their potential, but in a one-game scenario, either group can get it done.

While the receivers could be a push, New York does have an edge under center. Eli Manning has established himself as one of the clutch quarterbacks in the game, and it is more than just his performances in his two Super Bowl wins. Manning led the NFL in fourth quarter touchdowns last year, he converted just about every big third down that came his way, and he led a game-winning drive in the final minutes in Foxboro. Granted, Romo probably gets more criticism than he deserves, but the bottom line is that Manning gets the job done on the big stages while Romo hasn’t. In a rivalry game, Manning history of success under pressure is a huge plus for the Giants.

Of course, the X-factor in the game will likely be the Giants’ defensive front. It is no secret that the Dallas offensive line isn’t the strongest unit in the game, and that is bad news against New York. The Giants finished tied for third in the NFL with 48.0 sacks last year, and with the likes of Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul rotating along their defensive front, New York will likely finish at or near the top in sacks once again. Romo is going to be under pressure all night, and as I mentioned earlier, Romo and pressure haven’t exactly gotten along.

In the end, the same recipe that allowed New York to sweep the Cowboys and win the Super Bowl last year should allow them to win this year’s opener. While Manning should be able to take advantage of the young Dallas corners, the Giants’ pass rush should keep Romo scrambling most of the night. The Cowboys will still hit a big play or two themselves, but Manning will put things away in the fourth quarter if things do get close.

Prediction: New York Giants (-4) Cover the Spread 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: NY Giants -3.5
Total: Over/Under 45
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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