2012 AFC Championship Game Odds and Predictions: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Free NFL Picks 1/22/2012

Free 2012 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots NFL Playoffs Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS 1/22/12: While upsets have been the theme in the NFC, the AFC playoff picture has played out as expected heading into Sunday’s conference championship game. Fresh off a dismantling of Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, the top-seeded New England Patriots (14-3) will meet the second-seeded Baltimore Ravens (13-4) in Foxboro. The winner will earn a trip to Super Bowl XLVI, and with a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on the line, neither side is going to pull any punches. The high-powered offense will go head to head with the fierce Baltimore defense, and the Patriots are 7 ½-point favorites in this matchup.

Aside from winning games, the Patriots and Ravens are about as different as two teams can get. New England has been using a pass-happy, high-scoring offense to overcome a defense that was surrendered a ton of yardage. Meanwhile, Baltimore has used a suffocating defense to make up for a conservative offense that has struggled to score consistently at times. Diving into the numbers, Patriots had the second-best passing offense and the third-best scoring offense this season. The Ravens had the fourth-best defense against the pass this year and the third-best scoring defense. In other words, one side has to give, and the team that does is likely going to play its final playoff game this weekend.

There is no shortage of star power in this matchup for either side. Quarterback Tom Brady leads the spectacular New England offense, and the defending MVP threw for more than 5,200 yards this season – the second-most ever. Receiver Wes Welker had yet another 100 catch season and finished second in the NFL with more than 1,500 yards. Rob Gronkowski exploded this year as well, topping 1,300 yards and setting a record with 17 touchdowns from the tight end position. Throw in former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch at receiver and the speedy Aaron Hernandez at tight end, and it is easy to understand why the New England offense was so prolific.

Baltimore counters with plenty of big names on defense. Linebacker Ray Lewis led the team in tackles yet again, and Jameel McClain emerged as a stud at the position as well this season. The defensive line features tackle Haloti Ngata plugging up the middle, while the explosive Terrell Suggs is a force coming of the edge. Suggs led the team with 14.5 sacks and forced an incredible seven fumbles this season. The secondary is tough was well, with cornerback Lardarius Webb and safety Ed Reed. Webb led the team in interceptions this season, while Reed has intercepted eight passes in 10 career playoff games.

While the Ravens boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, it has become obvious that New England’s two tight end system simply can’t be stopped if Brady is given time in the pocket. Gronkowski and Hernandez are too big to be covered by cornerbacks and too fast to be covered by linebackers. If defenses try to counter with zone coverage, Welker and Branch are too good and finding soft spots in the coverage. If Baltimore is going to win, it has to put heat on Brady and force him into quick, contested throws.

Fortunately for the Ravens, they had one of the top pass rushes in the NFL this season. Led by Suggs, Baltimore ranked third with 48.0 sacks. For what it’s worth, that is the same number of sacks as the New York Giants, and the Giants went into Foxboro and knocked off the Patriots earlier this year, holding Brady and company to a season-low 20 points. The formula for success is clear, and if the Ravens pass rush is effective, they have a chance at pulling the upset.

Of course, Baltimore will have to find a way to score points as well. The offensive game plan will be crucial for the Ravens’ chances because controlling the clock and keeping the defense rested is just as important as scoring points. Running back Ray Rice is one of the best in the AFC, and if he can deliver solid, steady yards, he can allow Baltimore to dictate the tempo. A strong running game would also open up the play-action pass, allowing receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith to exploit a weak New England secondary.

The X-factor in the game is likely going to be Baltimore QB Joe Flacco. Although he has won a road playoff game in all three years of his career, extending the streak this season could be tough. He has always been more of a game manager, rather than a guy that makes the big play to win a game. Perhaps the most-telling stat is that Flacco completed less than 60 percent of his passes this season, and he struggled on the road. New England will likely design a defensive scheme that forces Flacco to beat them. It is questionable at best as to whether or not he can get the job done.

In a battle of strength against strength, the Baltimore defense should be able to have some success thanks to its physical pass rush. After all, the Patriots lost both games against other top defenses this season, falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers as well as the Giants. However, the Ravens don’t have an offense on par with either of those teams, which will put even more pressure on Lewis and the defense. New England coach Bill Belichick is a master at confusing opposing quarterbacks, and after making life tough for Tebow, he will likely do the same for Flacco. Eventually, Baltimore’s defense is going to wear down, and Brady is going to make some big plays.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-7 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New England Patriots -7.5

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