Game 6 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Odds and Predictions – 2012 NBA Playoff Free Picks

Game 6 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Odds and Predictions – 2012 NBA Playoff Free Picks: The second-seeded Miami Heat are dangerously close to experiencing a horrible case of déjà vu. After last year’s collapse in the NBA Finals, LeBron James, Dwyane Wayne and Chris Bosh all knew that anything less than a title this season would be a complete failure and possibly bring a premature end to what was supposed to be a dynasty. Down 3-2 in their Eastern Conference semifinals series with the fourth-seeded Celtics and heading to Boston for Game 6 Thursday night, the Heat are one loss away from another epic collapse and all the consequences that come with it. Ironically, this series was supposed to be the swan song for Boston’s “Big 3” of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Instead, the core of veterans could end up dismantling Miami’s trio of superstars. At least, the Heat can take comfort in the fact that the odds makers still believe in them, and Miami enters the do-or-die game as a 1 ½-point favorite.

When I previewed this matchup, I picked the Celtics to win this series because they had one distinct advantage – their mental toughness. Miami is faster, younger, more athletic and more explosive on offense, but all those advantages can be canceled out by the wrong mindset. Watching the last three games, it is clear that Boston and Pierce and Garnett in particular have absolutely no fear of losing. They aren’t afraid to take big shots in crunch time, and they want the ball in their hands at the foul line with the game hanging in the balance. Game 4 and Game 5 went down to the wire, and it is no surprise that the Celtics emerged victorious in both.

In the same situations where Pierce and company have been exceling, the Heat have failed time and time again. Neither James nor Wade look like the even want the ball in the final minutes, and nobody on Miami can hit a free throw when it matters. The Heat have a collective deer in headlights look about them down the stretch of games, and the bottom line is that they are just flat out scared of losing. James and Wade are nervous and pressing because they know changes are coming if they fail to bring a championship to South Beach yet again. Anyone in need of a visual representation of the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose should watch the last two games of the series.

Yes, there have been some bad calls that have gone against Miami. Pierce is apparently allowed to take charges while in the protected zone, and Mickael Pietrus is flopping on a level that would make Vlade Divac proud. However, championship teams find a way to overcome adversity, but the Heat become unraveled by it.

Yes, there are some matchup issues causing problems for the Heat, as well. Boston point guard Rajon Rondo continues to kill the Heat at the point of attack, and his penetration is breaking down the Miami defense, leaving Boston’s perimeter shooters open to knock down back-breaking 3-pointers. Meanwhile, Garnett has abused the thin Miami frontcourt both on the boards and in points in the paint. The easy baskets that Rondo and Garnett are getting and creating are huge in close games.

Even with those problems, Miami could still beat the Celtics if they could execute on offense when it matters. All too often, James and Wade seem to give up on attacking the basket. Their athleticism and ability to finish at the rim are their biggest strengths, but they seem to abandon the strategy after a few missed free throws or a blocked shot. Instead of continuing to drive and get to the foul line, the Heat become a bunch of stagnant jump shooters. The problem only exacerbates itself in the closing minutes of games when nobody on the team wants to be the player that misses the important shot. The end result has been terrible possessions, horrible looks at the basket, defeated body language and three straight losses.

Throw out the numbers. Thursday’s game is all about the mental war. Boston’s “Big 3” has shown through the years that it lives for pressure-packed games. Pierce and company never believed for a second that they couldn’t beat this Miami team, and they have to be relishing the chance to end the title hopes of the James and Wade. For Miami, facing elimination is going to do one of two things. It is either finally going to force James and Wade to a point where they just quit thinking about all expectations and allow them to break through the mental barrier, or the pressure of the moment is going to consume them and leave them searching for answers. I’ll take the latter. Why the Celtics are underdogs, I don’t know. The Heat will be heading back to South Beach after Thursday night’s game, but it won’t be for a Game 7.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (+1 ½) Cover the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite – Miami -1.5 Total – OVER/UNDER 179

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