Game 5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions – 2012 NBA Playoff Free Picks

Game 5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions – 2012 NBA Playoff Free Picks: As the Western Conference finals return to San Antonio for Game 5, both the top-seeded Spurs and second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have held serve at home. If the trend continues, the Spurs are in the driver’s seat. If Oklahoma City is going to keep its title hopes alive, it may take a win Monday night. After all, San Antonio posted an NBA-best 28-5 record at home this season, making it highly unlikely the Thunder could go into the Alamo Dome in a Game 7 atmosphere and emerge victorious. That leaves Game 5 as the potential turning point for Oklahoma City. However, San Antonio has yet to lose at home in the postseason, and they enter Monday’s matchup as 5-point favorites.

In terms of momentum, Oklahoma City will never have more than it does entering Game 5. Star forward Kevin Durant is coming off a monster 36-point performance in Game 4, reeling off 16 consecutive points in the fourth quarter at one point. In the same game, Thunder big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins played the best game of their postseason careers, scoring a combined 41 points on 18-of-20 shooting. If Oklahoma City continues to dominate the paint and Durant hits every shot he takes in crunch time, the Thunder is going to win no matter where the games are played.

For San Antonio, a rebound performance from Tony Parker will be crucial to the Spurs regaining control of the series. He averaged 26 points and six assists in the first two games of the series and just 14 points and four assists in the two games in Oklahoma City. The defense of Thabo Sefolosha has played a part in his struggles, but Parker has played better at home all year. He shot more than 50 percent from the field in the Alamo Dome compared to just 45 percent in road games during the regular season. Back in his comfort zone, Parker should make sure the Spurs’ offense looks more like the one that averaged 110.5 points per contest in Games 1 and 2, rather than the one that averaged just 92.5 points in Games 3 and 4.

With the Spurs likely to regain their offensive rhythm, the question then becomes whether or not the Thunder can keep pace. Durant has done his part, averaging 29 points per game during the series, but his supporting cast has been hit or miss, especially in the two games in San Antonio. Russell Westbrook has topped 20 points just once in the series, and in Games 1 and 2, Ibaka and Perkins combined for a total of 21 points. Ibaka scored more than that in Game 4 alone, but role players always seem to be better with the home crowd behind them. Instead of Ibaka knocking down mid-range jumpers and Perkins scoring on the block, a return to the Alamo Dome will likely mean plenty of 3-pointers from Gary Neal, Danny Green, Stephen Jackson and others.

If only watched the first two games of this series, you would think the Thunder had no chance to compete with the ball movement of the veteran Spurs. If you only watched the last two games, you would think that Oklahoma City was too young and athletic for Tim Duncan and company. Home court advantage makes a big difference in the NBA, and in Game 5, San Antonio has the crowd and the comfort level on their side. Looking at the numbers, Parker seems poised to rebound while the offense of the Thunder post players is likely to disappear. The combination of the two will tip the scale back in favor of the Spurs, and they should defend their home court Monday night and push Oklahoma City to within one game of being eliminated.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs (-5) Cover the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite – San Antonio -5 Total – OVER/UNDER 201.5

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