Free NBA Playoffs Picks Wednesday: Memphis Grizzlies Playing Like the No. 1 Seed

Free NBA Playoffs Picks and Odds: Game 5 Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Favorite, Moneyline, Total and Predictions 4/27/11: Normally, the teams that earn the No. 1 seed in both conferences have an easy time in the opening round. Sure, there have been a few upsets, but since the NBA adopted the best-of-seven format in all rounds of the playoffs in 2003, only the 2007 Dallas Mavericks have gone out in the first round as a top seed. The San Antonio Spurs are dangerously close to joining that list, but despite being down 3-1, they are 6 ½ points favorites in Game 5.

Granted, San Antonio will be back on its home court for the contest, but home court advantage hasn’t led to easy wins for the Spurs in this series. In fact, the teams split a pair of games in San Antonio to start the series, and in their Game 2 loss on the road, the Grizzlies only lost by six. In other words, Memphis has won three out of four games thus far and hasn’t lost by more than six, but the oddsmakers are giving them 6 ½ points for Wednesday’s Game 3. If I am betting on the game, I like those numbers.

There is little mystery as to why the Grizzlies are on the verge of the upset. Memphis has flat out been the better team. Mike Conley Jr. has held his own against Tony Parker, and Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have absolutely abused the San Antonio frontcourt. Tim Duncan suddenly looks very old, and his lousy six-point effort during the Spurs blowout loss in Game 4 was a microcosm of San Antonio’s problems. The Grizzlies are younger, faster and more athletic, and it is becoming increasingly evident with each passing game.

Perhaps the most telling statistic is the Spurs efficiency from behind the 3-point line, or lack thereof. San Antonio finished the regular season as the top 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Spurs currently rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in terms of 3-point efficiency. Tony Allen, Shane Battier and the rest of the Grizzlies perimeter defenders have made life miserable for San Antonio’s shooters. The Spurs have lived by the 3-pointer all year, and they are a game away from dying by it in the postseason.

Working against the Grizzlies is the fact that young teams have a history of struggling to close out series, especially on the road. However, Memphis was confident about its chances in this series before it even began. In fact, the team actually sat its starters in the final regular season games in order to ensure a first round meeting with the Spurs. The Grizzlies asked for this matchup, and they are taking advantage of it. Don’t expect them to suddenly get cold feet after coming this far.

That being said, it won’t be easy for Memphis to put away San Antonio. Even the aging Spurs roster will muster one last stand in an attempt to stay alive. However, the results on the court don’t lie. The Grizzlies haven’t lost a game by more than six points yet, and they simply pose too many problems for the Spurs to suddenly get blown out. San Antonio may be able to extend the series another game, but it will be a close game. Bettors should feel free to take the Grizzlies(check latest NBA Odds at SBG Global Sportsbook) straight up, but they should definitely jump on the inviting spread.

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies (+6 ½ points) Cover the Spread in Game 5

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