Christmas Day Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks Odds, Free Picks and Predictions -NBA Picks and Odds 12/25/11: The last time the NBA played a game the meant something, the Dallas Mavericks were busy knocking off the Miami Heat to claim the franchise’s first championship. Thanks to the lockout, fans won’t have to wait long to get a rematch as the two teams go head to head on opening day this weekend. Miami has revenge on its mind as it looks to start another run at an NBA title on a high note, while Dallas is out to prove it is still team to beat. Despite beating the Heat rather handily in last year’s finals, the Mavericks are actually 4 ½-point underdogs in the season opener.
Granted, the oddsmakers have their reasons for slighting the defending champs. For starters, center Tyson Chandler signed with the New York Nicks in the offseason, stripping an otherwise aging Dallas team of a vital defensive force in the middle. Speedy point guard J.J. Barea departed in free agency as well, and it can easily be argued that Barea’s insertion into the starting lineup in last year’s NBA Finals was the move that tipped the scale in favor of the Mavericks. Dallas did bring in veterans Lamar Odom and Vince Carter, but it is only fair to expect a bit of a transition period given the abbreviated training camp.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat returns its superstar trio that now has a year of experience playing together. Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh are just starting to scratch the surface of their potential as teammates, and they should have even more chemistry this season. More importantly, big man Udonis Haslem is healthy again, and free agent acquisition Shane Battier adds another defensive stopper to the mix. In terms of speed and athleticism, the huge edge goes to the Heat.
Of course, Miami had that edge last year as well, and things didn’t exactly work out in their favor. The real question is whether or not James and company can compete mentally with the Mavericks. After all, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion have been playing too long to be intimidated, especially by a team they just beat for a championship. James’ fourth quarter disappearing acts have to be looming on the minds of the Heat players, and whether they admit it or not, every player on the Miami roster still has to question whether or not they can put Dallas away in crunch time.
That being said, the atmosphere is going to be much different on opening day than it was in the Finals. Even though it is technically a rematch, it is impossible to simulate the pressure that exists when a championship is at stake. Dallas still probably has a mental edge, but the advantage shouldn’t be near as impactful as it was the last time these teams met. Let’s face it. Both sides know that this is just the first step on the long road to the ultimate prize.
In the end, the lockout and shortened offseason should favor Miami. A veteran team like Dallas will likely take a bit longer to get going, while Wade, James and Bosh can roll out of bed and throw down a highlight-reel dunk. A little rust and sloppy play is to be expected from both sides, but Miami’s playmakers should be able to use their athleticism and skill in the open court when push comes to shove.
Prediction: Miami Heat (-4 ½) Covers the Spread
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