Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs NBA Picks, Lines and Preview on TNT 3/31/11

Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs NBA Picks, Lines and Preview on TNT 3/31/11: About a month ago the Celtics and Spurs seemed to be on a collision course to meet in the NBA finals. A lot has changed in a short amount of time, and both teams are stumbling toward the playoffs entering tonight’s matchup. The oddsmakers have the Celtics as one-point favorites, which means bettors are basically looking at having to pick the winning team in order to get paid.

The Celtics and the Spurs are both comfortably in the playoffs despite their recent slumps, but that doesn’t mean they have nothing to play for. Boston is sitting 2 ½ games back for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Spurs are clinging to a 3 ½ game lead in the Western Conference that has been shrinking almost every time they take the court. Both teams are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, and the Spurs have lost four in a row. Momentum clearly isn’t a factor for either squad.

The Celtics two biggest issues continue to be the declining play of point guard Rajon Rondo and the lack of an interior presence. As Rondo’s assists total slip, the efficiency of the rest of the starters has followed suit. Paul Pierce has been hit especially hard. The issues inside are partly of the Celtics’ own doing. They traded center Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City, and veteran big men Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal continue to be sidelined with injuries.

The Spurs are dealing with injuries of their own. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are all suffering from various bumps and bruises. With the centerpieces of their offense hobbled, it is easy to understand why San Antonio has struggled. There is a chance all three players could suit up for tonight’s contest, but the number of minutes they will play and their conditioning are both question marks.

The fact is that even if Duncan does play in the game, he isn’t the dominant force he once was. Even at full strength, the Spurs lack the big men inside to take advantage of Boston’s lack of size. Meanwhile, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Pierce are locks to be in the starting lineup and can still produce respectable numbers even with Rondo struggling.

When it comes down to it, the Celtics just have more to play for. They are currently tied with the Miami Heat for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and home court advantage against King James and company could be very useful come playoff time. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Spurs lead may be shrinking, but it is still a lead. San Antonio isn’t going to go all out until playoff time.

With health and motivation on the Celtics’ side, the smart money is on Boston in this one. At full strength, the Spurs probably have the edge, but they aren’t anywhere close to full strength for tonight’s game.

FREE PICK: Boston Celtics +2

GAME: Boston (51-22) at San Antonio (57-17)
TIME: 8:05 PM EST
TV: TNT
NBA Vegas Odds and Lines: Favorite: San Antonio -2 Total: Over/Under 187.5
* Lines from the Mirage Sportsbook in Las Vegas