2020 NBA MVP Odds & Predictions – Value Bets and Sleepers for MVP Award: While the race for the NBA Most Valuable Player Award typically isn’t a wide-open affair, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has made this year’s race particularly one sided. The defending MVP has been even better this season, dominating on both ends of the court while leading the Bucks to the best record in the NBA.
The Greek Freak is currently listed at -450 to take him his second consecutive MVP, far and away the frontrunner for the award. As long as he stays healthy, he’s going to win, but what happens if he doesn’t finish out the season? Let’s take a closer look at who is positioned to step up in the unfortunate event that Antetokounmpo is suddenly out of the picture.
Value Bets
Luka Doncic, SG, Dallas Mavericks (+650)
His numbers are ridiculous, especially for a 20-year-old, and Doncic has been a triple-double threat whenever he steps on the court. He is sixth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 28.9 points per game, and his 8.7 assists per game rank third. Doncic currently sits second in PER, and he even ranks in the top 20 in rebounding (9.5). He also has the Mavericks cruising towards the playoffs, and if you are fading Giannis, Doncic should be high on your list of contrarian bets.
LeBron James, F, Los Angeles Lakers (+850)
If I’m throwing some money on anyone outside of Antetokounmpo, it is going to be James. I think his name recognition alone makes him a solid value at these odds, and he’s actually having an excellent season for a Lakers squad on pace to be the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. He’s delivering his usual all-around production, averaging 25.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and a league-best 10.8 assists, and he’s also ranked in the top 10 in PER. If you like the deeper analytics, James leads the NBA in Real Plus-Minus and Real Plus-Minus Wins.
James Harden, SG, Houston Rockets (+900)
He’s cruising to another scoring title, averaging a league-best 35.3 points per game so far this season. Throw in the fact that he ranks in the top 10 in assists and sits third in PER, and Harden certainly has the stats to take home another MVP. If he can go on another one of his eye-popping scoring streaks to close the regular season and vault the Rockets from the middle of the pack to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, he could be the next man up if The Greek Freak slips up.
Sleeper Special
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (+2800)
Kawhi Leonard (+4000) is another intriguing sleeper based on the value for the talent, but I just don’t see him backing off the load management strategy and playing enough games to make a run. Lillard, on the other hand, is doing everything in his power to drag the Trail Blazers into the playoffs. He sits fourth in the NBA in scoring at 29.5, and he ranks sixth in assists and fifth in PER. Lillard is averaging a career-high in points while shooting a career-best 46.0 percent. He’s already had one ridiculous run when he scored at least 47 points five times in a six-game stretch, and if has another crazy scoring binge that leads Portland to the playoffs, Lillard could be the one waiting in the wings if something happens to Antetokounmpo.
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