2019 NBA Finals MVP Odds & Predictions – NBA Finals MVP Favorites & Value Bets: The 2019 NBA Finals are set to begin this Thursday, and while the Golden State Warriors will be trying to extend their dynasty with a three-peat and their fourth title in five years, the Toronto Raptors will look to pull the upset and dethrone the champs.
While these two teams will battle for the title, one player is also going to take home the coveted Finals MVP Award. History says you can bank on the winner of the award coming from the winning team, and while each side has a cleat frontrunner, there are also some decent alternatives for the favored Warriors.
The Favorites
Stephen Curry (-140)
For all the individual success that Curry has enjoyed during Golden State’s dynasty, he doesn’t have a Finals MVP to his name. That could change this year. With Kevin Durant currently sidelined, Curry is once again the engine driving the Warriors’ high-powered offense. He has scored at least 33 points in the last five games, delivering at least 36 points in all four games of Golden State’s sweep of Portland while knocking down a combined 26 3-pointers. Durant will not be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and he may not be back at all. The smart money is on Curry continuing to pile up points on his way to MVP honors.
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Kawhi Leonard (+300)
The good news is that if the Raptors win the series, Leonard is essentially a lock to win MVP honors. The issue is that Toronto is going to have a tough time dethroning the two-time defending champs, and voters have made it clear that the MVP is going to go to a player on the winning team. Leonard is averaging 31.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game in the postseason, and he will post incredible offensive numbers again in the NBA Finals while locking down one of Golden State’s weapons on the defensive end. I don’t think the Raptors are going to win, but you can hedge your bets on any Golden State players by putting one down on Leonard.
Value Bets
Draymond Green (+600)
Arguably the biggest beneficiary of the Kevin Durant injury from a production standpoint, Green has had the opportunity to rediscover the point-forward role on a regular basis during these playoffs. He capped the sweep of Portland with back-to-back triple-doubles, and he is stuffing the stat sheet on both ends of the court. Green won’t lead Golden State in scoring, but if he leads the team in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and throws in a couple of more triple-doubles, he could walk away with the Finals MVP trophy.
Klay Thompson (+1600)
Thompson has been the forgotten star in Golden State throughout this dynasty, but when I start looking for a bet with some legitimate room for profit, I can’t overlook the sharpshooter. He isn’t going to post the all-around stat lines of the MVP favorites, but when Thompson gets hot, he can fill it up at a record-breaking pace. If he is locked in for however long the series goes and ends up averaging more than 30 points and threatening or setting records for 3-pointers, he will be tough to ignore when it comes time to vote for the MVP.
Kevin Durant (+2500)
I am betting on a player with longer odds, I actually like Durant a little more than Thompson. Granted, there is no guarantee that Durant even plays in this series, but when healthy is an unstoppable scoring machine who won the Finals MVP in each of the last two seasons. Before the injury, he was pouring in 34.2 points per game while also chipping in 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Can you imagine if the Warriors happen to fall behind in the series and Durant returns to help spark a comeback? He will walk away with the MVP in a landslide if that situation unfolds.
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Odds to Win 2019 NBA Finals MVP
STEPH CURRY -150
KAWHI LEONARD +300
KEVIN DURANT +1200
DRAYMOND GREEN +400
KYLE LOWRY +2800
PASCAL SIAKAM +2500
KLAY THOMPSON +700
ANDRE IGUODALA +4000
DEMARCUS COUSINS +10000
MARC GASOL +7000
SERGE IBAKA +10000
FRED VANVLEET +7000
DANNY GREEN +15000
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