2014 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions: NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Picks:

2014 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions: NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Picks: : As was expected when the NBA playoffs began, the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs and second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have navigated their way through the loaded Western Conference and will meet in the conference finals. The series is a battle of youth versus experience, and while the Spurs are trying to prolong the run of dominance by adding a fifth title to the Tim Duncan Era, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Thunder are trying to start their own dynasty by breaking through and winning their first championship. The series is also a matchup between the last two Western Conference champions, but only one team will be returning to the NBA Finals. The series begins Monday in San Antonio.

Not surprisingly, Durant and Westbrook have led the way for a Thunder offense averaging 104.5 points per game in the playoffs, Durant is averaging 31.4 points and 9.5 rebounds, and Westbrook is flirting with triple-doubles on a nightly basis, averaging 26.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.4 assist. While Durant and Westbrook have been excellent, the Thunder are likely going to be without their No. 3 option, Serge Ibaka, after he suffered a severe calf injury in Oklahoma City’s series-clinching victory against the Los Angeles Clippers. Guard Reggie Jackson seems capable of picking up the slack on the offensive end, but it remains to be seen who can replace Ibaka’s contributions as a rebounder and an elite shot-blocker.

Armed with a rotation that runs nine players deep, the Spurs have utilized depth and balance to reach the conference finals. Tony Parker has led the way, averaging a team-high 19.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili are all averaging at least 14.0 points per game, as well. Overall, the Spurs are averaging 105.5 points per game, and they have also been solid on the defensive end. In fact, San Antonio leads all Western Conference teams in points allowed during the playoffs, giving up just 98.8 points per game.

The Thunder Win If:

If the Thunder or going to win the series, they need to their two stars to dominate this series on both ends of the court. While it’s practically a given that Durant and Westbrook will win their matchups on the offensive end, they also have to step up on the defensive end. If Westbrook can do a decent job of keeping Parker out of the lane, it will make it harder for the Spurs to exploit Ibaka’s absence. For his part, Durant needs to help out on the glass even more than he already does while using his length to help out Oklahoma City’s inexperienced post defenders. When it comes down to it, the Thunder have one of the two-best players in the NBA in Durant and a top-10 player in Westbrook. If the duo controls this series, the Thunder will go back to the NBA Finals.

The Spurs Win If:

For San Antonio to win the series, exploiting the Ibaka injury to its fullest is a must. The Spurs have to get into the paint and feed the ball into the post with regularity in order to attack the weakened Thunder frontcourt and get quality looks on a consistent basis. Defensively, the Spurs have to sell out to slow down Durant and Westbrook. If San Antonio can force Oklahoma City to have to rely on some of its other options, Ibaka’s absence is going to be felt. At the end of the day, the Spurs need to make Durant and Westbrook work as hard as possible for their points while using their multitude of options to get easy baskets.

Bottom Line:

While it would be easy to assume that Ibaka’s injury tips the scales in favor of San Antonio, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence. After all, the Thunder won all four meetings with the Spurs during the regular season in large part because of San Antonio’s inability to stop Durant and Westbrook. Leonard is the only player San Antonio has that has a prayer of covering Durant or Westbrook, and unless the Spurs can clone home in the next few days, they are going to have problems on the defensive end. Granted, no team is better than San Antonio at exploiting the weaknesses of their opponents, and the Spurs are going to attack the weakened Thunder frontcourt with regularity. However, Ibaka’s absence really just means that two of the best players in the NBA are going to have the ball in their hands even more often. In the end, the athleticism and offensive arsenals of Durant and Westbrook will be too much for the experience and depth of the Spurs.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder Win in 6 Games

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