2014 NBA Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Odds and Predictions: NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals Picks:

2014 NBA Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Odds and Predictions: NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals Picks: Despite both teams struggling in the second half of the year, the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers are right where everyone expected them to be, facing off in the Eastern Conference finals for the second year in a row. Last season’s matchup ended up being a seven-game thriller won be the Heat, but this time around, the Pacers have the top seed and home-court advantage. While Indiana will be trying to flip the script from a year ago, Miami will be trying to head back to the NBA Finals for the fourth year in a row with a shot at three-peating as champions. These two teams have developed quite a rivalry over the past couple of seasons, and this matchup should have no lack of intensity. The series begins Sunday in Indiana.

Through the first two rounds of the 2014 playoffs, the second-seeded Heat have looked the part of two-time defending champs. Miami has lost just a single game, sweeping Charlotte in the first round out dispatching Brooklyn in five games. Not surprisingly, LeBron James has led the way, and he is leading the team with 30.0 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are averaging a combined 32.5 points per game, and three players are shooting at least 50.0 percent from the field. Bosh has been particularly deadly from beyond the arc, knocking down a team-high 1.9 3-pointers per game at a 48.6 percent clip. Miami has also stepped it up on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in the playoffs.

Defense has been Indiana’s calling card all year, and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs. The Pacers are allowing just 89.8 points per game, and they are holding opponents to a dismal 40.4 field goal percentage. Despite the stellar defense, Indiana’s path to the conference finals has been anything but smooth thanks to an inconsistent offense. The Pacers were actually down 3-2 in their first-round series against eighth-seeded Atlanta, and they needed six games to get past Washington in the semifinals. The disappearing act of Roy Hibbert has gotten most of the attention during Indiana’s offensive slump, but even Paul George and Lance Stephenson have had a few poor shooting performances. As a team, Indiana is averaging just 91.4 points per game in the playoffs, but so the Pacers have been providing just enough support for their stellar defense.

The Heat Win If:

For the Heat to win this series, they have to find a way to neutralize Indiana’s size advantage inside on both ends of the court. Offensively, the Heat have to create driving lines for James and Wade by spreading the ball around and knocking down open perimeter shots when they are available. When their offense does stall, the James needs to try to back down his defender and get a decent look rather than consistently settling for perimeter jumpers. Defensively, Miami has to hold its own on the glass. The Heat alaso have to apply excellent perimeter pressure in order to make it difficult for Indiana to get the ball to its big men in good position. Bosh in particular will play a crucial role. If he can hold his own against Hibbert defensively and pull Indiana’s center away from the basket by hitting some perimeter shots, Miami should be able to play small and force the Indiana to play at a faster pace than it wants to. Overall, the Heat can win this series by controlling the tempo and putting pressure on Indiana’s offense to keep pace in a higher-scoring series.

The Pacers Win If:

If the Pacers are going to win the game, they have to take advantage of their size inside. Miami simply doesn’t have the bodies to defend West and Hibbert on a consistent basis, and by making a concentrated effort to get both big men the ball, the Pacers should get quality looks for their bigs and for their perimeter players if the Heat choose to double team in the post. Indiana also needs to use its size advantage to dominate the boards, and in particular, the Pacers need to grab some offensive boards to crate extra possession and easy second-chance points. Defensively, Hibbert has to stay out of foul trouble and be constant rim-protector. As a team, the Pacers have to keep James and Wade out of the paint and make Miami win this series with perimeter shooting. After all, 3-point shooting is streaky, but if James and Wade are getting to the rim, baskets are all but automatic. If the Pacers are able to assert their size on both ends of the court and turn this into a slow-paced, defensive-minded series, they should be in great shape.

Bottom Line:

Although there is no doubt that Miami has looked like the better team so far in the playoffs, matchups are everything in basketball, and the Pacers are a brutal matchup for the Heat. It all starts inside with Hibbert, and while he can disappear for stretches and seems to get knocked down more than any player in the NBA, he consistently plays like an All-Star against Miami. The Heat simply don’t have a player big enough and strong enough to keep him out of the paint and off the glass, and when Hibbert is on the court and effective, the Pacers are going to control the tempo and make it tough for James to get to the rim. Granted, Miami does have a collection of perimeter-shooting role players and the improved 3-point shooting of Bosh to fall back on, but the Heat simply aren’t the Heat when James is taking mostly jumpers. Not to mention the fact that in order to play small, James and Bosh have to spend a lot of energy guarding West and Hibbert, which is going to play a factor late in games and over the course of the series. In the end, I expect this series to be every bit as back-and-forth and tight as last year’s matchup. However, I also expect the Pacers to reverse the outcome, wearing down the Heat by making them play their style and winning Game 7 in Indiana.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers Win in 7 Games

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