2013 NBA Playoff Picks: Western Conference Semifinals Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds and Predictions

2013 NBA Playoff Picks: Western Conference Semifinals Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds and Predictions: They took different approaches, but the fifth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder both reached the Western Conference semifinals. After dropping the first two games of their opening-round series with the Clippers, the Grizzlies rallied with four straight wins to oust Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Thunder jumped out to a 3-0 lead in their series with Houston but let the Rockets push them to a Game 6 before finally ending things. Of course, the more pressing problem for Oklahoma City other than Houston putting up a fight is the loss of point guard Russell Westbrook, who is out for the rest of playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus. Healthy or not, this series kicks off Sunday.

Memphis is far from a perfect team, but the Grizzlies do know their identity and play to their strengths. The Grizzlies ranked fourth last in the NBA in scoring but allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season while ranking among the top three in opponent field goal percentage and defensive efficiency. On the offensive end, Memphis pounds the ball inside the Zach Randolph and Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. Meanwhile, Tony Allen provides elite-level perimeter defense while point guard Mike Conley Jr. has done nothing but improve and was brilliant in Memphis’ first-round win over the Clippers. At the end of the day, the Grizzlies have the size to pound opponents on both ends of the court, and that is exactly what this team does.

For Oklahoma City, a powerful offense has been the calling card since Kevin Durant came to town, and this year has been no exception. The Thunder ranked third in the NBA in scoring during the regular season, second in field goal percentage and attempted more free throws than any other team. Of course, the now-injured Westbrook had something to do with that, ranking sixth in the NBA in scoring. While Durant is capable of picking up some of the slack on his own, backup point guard Reggie Jackson, sixth-man Kevin Martin and shot-blocking artist Serge Ibaka will all have to step up if the Thunder offense is going to remain the efficient scoring machine it has been all year.

The Grizzlies Win If:

Memphis really has only one style of play, and if they are going to be successful, it starts with establishing Gasol and Randolph in the post. If Memphis is able to get high-percentage shots on a consistent basis, the Thunder are going to have a difficult time getting out in transition and pushing the tempo. In addition to winning the battle of points in the paint, the Grizzlies will be in great shape offensively if Conley takes advantage of Westbrook’s absence to have strong series both scoring and distributing. On the defensive end, Allen needs to make Durant’s life as difficult as possible. Even if Durant still scores 35-plus points, Allen can do his job by tiring out the Thunder’s star by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Other than that, Memphis just needs to control the glass and keep Oklahoma City from getting to the rim as often as possible. In the end, the Grizzlies win this series if they make a majority of the possessions come in a half-court setting and consistently win the battle in the paint on both ends.

The Thunder Win If:

While Durant is obviously Oklahoma City’s best player, the Thunder are only going to win this series if his supporting cast plays well. In particular, center Kendrick Perkins and Ibaka need to be more than just defensive enforces inside. The duo probably won’t outscore Memphis’ powerful frontcourt, but the Thunder need to at least keep the battle of points in the paint respectable. Oklahoma City is also going to need help from its backcourt, and while Martin has to be a reliable secondary scoring option, Jackson needs to make sure Conley doesn’t control the game for the Grizzlies by consistently getting into the paint and picking apart the Thunder’s defense. In the end, Oklahoma City still has the best player on the court in Durant so if the Thunder just neutralize the mismatches at the point guard spot and in the frontcourt, he is capable of doing the rest. Plain and simple, Oklahoma City needs its other players to step up if it is going to advance.

Bottom Line:

Memphis is probably the worst team the Thunder could meet in the playoffs without Westbrook. Without another scorer capable of taking over the game, Allen is going to be able to focus solely on making Durant work for his points. Meanwhile, the already-underachieving frontcourt of Ibaka and Perkins is going to have its hand full with the duo of Gasol and Randolph. Not to mention the fact the Memphis suddenly has the edge in speed at the point guard spot. In the end, the loss of Westbrook is going to make it difficult for the Thunder to establish the faster pace that they need to be at their best. Heck, Memphis went 2-1 against the Thunder during the regular season when Westbrook was on the court. Now, Grizzlies should have an even easier time controlling the pace and pounding the ball inside. I see this series coming down to essentially Durant versus Memphis, and the Grizzlies are too good at wearing down opponents to lose that matchup.

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies Win in 6 Games

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies -120
Oklahoma City Thunder +100

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