2013 NBA Playoff Eastern Conference Finals Odds and Picks: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Predictions

2013 NBA Playoff Eastern Conference Finals Odds and Picks: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Predictions: For the second year in a row, the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat will meet in the playoffs, but this time around, the teams will be playing for a spot in the NBA Finals. The defending champion and top-seeded Heat are back in the Eastern Conference finals for the third year in a row while the third-seeded Pacers are making their first appearance since 2004. Last season, Indiana held a 2-1 series lead against Miami in the conference semifinals before the Heat ripped off three straight wins to close things out. This year, the Pacers took 2 of the three regular-season meetings with the Heat, but Miami did route Indiana in the most-recent matchup. The series figures to boil down to a battle between Indiana’s top-rated defense and Miami’s top-rated offense, but only one team is going to advance and compete for a championship.

The key to Indiana’s success this year has been its defense, and the Pacers are in the conference finals despite shooting just 42.0 percent as a team and averaging just 92.0 points. Plain and simple, Indiana is not a great offensive team, but they more than make up for it with a defense that led the NBA in efficiency during the regular season and continues to make life tough on opponents in the postseason. The Pacers support their defense with a deliberate pace on offense, and big men Roy Hibbert and David West are a focal point of the attack. The duo is averaging 25.5 points and 16.4 rebounds combined during the playoffs, and Hibbert is also averaging 2.5 blocks. When Indiana does need someone to create offense, Paul George and George Hill are the most-likely candidates. George has emerged as one of the best two-way players in the game and is averaging 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists in the playoffs while Hill is second on the team in scoring and is hitting a team-high 2.0 3-pointers per game. That being said, the Pacers are a defensive-minded team at their core, and a hot shooting night is juts icing on the cake for this team.

While a brutally physical series with Chicago took a toll on their overall numbers, the Heat are still an offensive powerhouse at their core. LeBron James is the engine that makes Miami run, and in addition to averaging 24.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists, he has been closing out close games with his expanded offensive game. Granted, a knee injury to Dwyane Wade has him playing at less than full strength, but Chris Bosh has been playing well thus far, and Ray Allen is just one of several perimeter shooters that capitalize on all the attention James, Wade and Bosh receive. Throw in a very underrated half-court defense, and despite a lack of size and occasional issues on the boards, the Heat are every bit as talented this year as the team that won the title last year.

The Pacers Win If:

If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset, they need to make sure they impose a grindingly slow pace on both ends of the court. On the offensive end, it starts with pounding the ball inside to Hibbert and West, but both players have to be able to convert the opportunities and get to the foul line for the strategy to be effective. If the Pacers can score consistently on offense, it will allow them to set up their defense in the half court and limit Miami’s transition scoring chances. When Indiana does get its defense set, Hibbert and the other big men have to at least challenge James, Wade and the other Heat scorers at the rim so that the Pacers’ perimeter defenders can stay at home on Miami’s arsenal of perimeter shooters. A big series from George, particularly down the stretch of games, will certainly help the cause, but Indiana’s chances of winning the series ultimately depend on the team’s ability to make the Heat a half-court team on offense and to dominate the paint and glass on both ends.

The Heat Win If:

If the defending champs are going to march back to the NBA Finals, they will need to turn Indiana’s size advantage into a disadvantage. While Hibbert and West have size and strength, they don’t have the speed and athleticism to keep up with Miami’s stars. If the Heat, can establish a faster pace, especially early in games, they are going to be in the driver’s seat. For the Heat, creating a faster pace and transition opportunities starts on the defensive end, and if they can force the Pacers into taking contested jumpers, James and company should have plenty of chances to get out and run. When Miami does get stuck in half-court sets, Bosh has to draw Indiana’s big men away from the basket into order to create driving lanes for his fellow stars and open perimeter looks for the role players. Indiana simply doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to catch back up if they fall behind.

Bottom Line:

For Miami, this series is going to be a lot like their semifinal matchup with Chicago. Like the Bulls, the Pacers are an excellent defensive team that often has issues scoring points. In addition, they also have a major size advantage in the frontcourt. However, James and the Heat were able to overcome the Bulls last round, and they are going to be able to do the same to the Pacers. Granted, Indiana has a lot more players healthy and available than the Bulls did, but the Pacers don’t have the same nasty determination and pure hatred for Miami that Chicago does. The Bulls didn’t have enough offensive firepower to bully their way by the defending champs, and the Pacers don’t have enough toughness to stand up to them on this big of a stage. Indiana’s legit defense and strong home-court advantage will allow them to win a game or two, but over the course of the series, the Pacers just don’t have a player that can close out close games the way James and Wade can for the Heat.

Prediction: Miami Heat Win in 6 Games

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Series Odds
Indiana Pacers +500
Miami Heat -700

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