2013 NBA Picks: Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks

2013 NBA Picks: Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks 1/27/13 With the NFL only offering fans the Pro Bowl as entertainment this weekend, the NBA takes center stage with ABC’s Sunday Showcase making its return. The two-game slate begins with the defending champion Miami Heat (28-12) visiting the Boston Celtics (20-23) in a rematch of the season opener for both teams. The game also marks Ray Allen’s first trip back to Boston since signing with the Heat in the offseason, which should only add a little intensity to one of the NBA’s better rivalries. Miami rolls into the matchup with the best record in the Eastern Conference while Boston has dropped its last six games. Not surprisingly, the Heat are four-point favorites on the road.

Miami has stuck with small lineup that helped it win the title last year, and the end result has been a high-powered offensive attack. The Heat are currently fifth in the NBA in scoring at 102.8 points per game and leading the league in field goal percentage. LeBron James once again leads the way, averaging a ridiculous 27.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.1 assists. However, Dwyane Wade is getting healthier and averaging more than 20 points per game in his own right while Chris Bosh is enjoying his best year in Miami. Meanwhile, the offseason addition of Allen has helped the Heat become the second-best 3-point shooting team. The flip side of Miami’s smaller lineup is that the Heat rank dead last in rebounding and are in the middle of the pack in scoring defense.

For Boston, an overall lack of offensive firepower has been resulted in a rough start. Despite point guard Rajon Rondo leading the NBA in assists, Boston ranks just 21st in scoring. The Celtics do still rank in the top 10 in the NBA in field goal percentage, but outside of Rondo, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, they just don’t have any reliable scoring as Jeff Green and Jason Terry have both underwhelmed. The Celtics have struggled on the boards, as well, ranking second last in the league. Boston does still rank 10th in the NBA in scoring defense, but compared to past years, this is actually a drop-off for this group.

The Heat Win If:

It’s no secret that Boston isn’t exactly the youngest team in the NBA, and James and company need to push the tempo at every opportunity. The high-powered Heat offense is at its best when it is getting transition baskets and quick scoring chances anyway, and against a slower team like Boston, Miami needs its offense to dictate the tempo. Defensively, the Heat need to make Rondo a shooter rather than a distributor. They also need to defend the perimeter. One of the few ways the Celtics are going to be able to keep pace is if they start knocking down 3-pointers, but if Miami is making players other than Rondo create their offense, the superior scoring ability of James, Wade and the Heat offense in general is going to win out.

The Celtics Win If:

Boston’s strength is its play in the half court, and if the Celtics are going to end their losing streak Sunday, they have to slow the pace and make Miami work for their points. In particular, the Celtics need to clog the lane and prevent James and Wade from living at the rim. Offensively, either Rondo or Pierce is going to have to have a big game. James can only guard one of them, and whichever player isn’t being locked down by the Heat star needs to pick up the slack. Garnett also needs to have a solid game offensively, taking advantage of Miami’s small frontcourt. If the Celtics can make this lower-scoring game played in the half court, they have a chance to grind out a win against the offensive-minded Heat.

Bottom Line:

Although a lot of time has passed since the Heat delivered a 120-107 beating to Boston in the October opener, the rosters for both sides haven’t really changed. James and company are still fast and athletic and can pile up points, while Boston’s stars are no longer in their prime. Yes, Miami can lose focus on defense, but the motivation of playing their rivals and wanting to help Allen quiet a hostile crowd should be more than enough to bring out a strong effort from the Heat on both ends of the court. At the end of the day, the Celtics just don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Miami, especially with as poor as they have been playing the past few weeks.

Prediction: Miami Heat (-4) Cover the Spread

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Spread: Miami -4
Total: 188
Time: 1:00 PM EST on ABC

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