2013 NBA Finals Odds and Picks: San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Predictions

2013 NBA Finals Odds and Picks: San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Predictions: In 2007, the San Antonio Spurs met a Cleveland Cavaliers team led by LeBron James in the NBA Finals and promptly bounced James and the Cavs in four games. Six years later, James is set to take on San Antonio in the NBA Finals once again, but this time as the leader of the defending champion Miami Heat. While the Spurs will be playing for a title for the first time since beating Cleveland in ’07 and trying to cap an era of excellence with one more title, the Heat will be making their third straight appearance in the NBA Finals and trying to establish a dynasty of their own. The series kicks off Thursday in South Beach with Miami as the favorite.

After being unable to get over the hump and return to the NBA Finals since 2007, the Spurs dismissed the notion that they are over the hill in emphatic fashion. San Antonio has been firing on all cylinders on offense and defense, compiling a 12-2 record thus far and sweeping Memphis in the Western Conference finals. Tony Parker has been carving up defenses with his has scoring and passing skills, Tim Duncan has been pulling down double-doubles, and Kawhi Leonard has been doing a little bit of everything. Granted, Manu Ginobili has been struggling with his shot a bit, but Danny Green has picked up the slack with his own perimeter shooting. Throw Tiago Splitter’s improved play on both ends of the court, and the Spurs are as deep and complete as they have been in quite some time.

After steamrolling their way to the NBA’s best record in the regular season, the road to the NBA Finals has been far from easy for Miami. After a physical series with an undermanned Chicago team, the Heat needed all seven games to dispose of Indiana. The speed and athleticism that made Miami one of the highest-scoring teams in the league year has been somewhat neutralized in the playoffs. LeBron James has been his typical brilliant self, but Dwyane Wade has been hobbled by an injury, Chris Bosh has been nonexistent at times, and Ray Allen has struggled to find his shot. Heck, there have been stretches where Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen have been the best offensive players outside of James. Still, Miami has managed to return to the NBA Finals despite being outrebounded and despite the unbalanced attack by stringing together enough hot stretches on offense and by maintaining intensity on the defensive end.

The Spurs Win If:

If the Spurs are going to win this series, they have to exploit their matchup advantages on the offensive end. It starts with Parker repeatedly beating Miami guards Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole at the point of the attack. If Parker is able to consistently penetrate into the lane, he will be able to create his own offense or collapse the Heat defense and find open perimeter shooters. Meanwhile, Duncan and Splitter need to exploit the smaller Miami frontcourt by getting easy baskets in the posts and crashing the offensive glass. If both Duncan and Splitter are scoring, the Heat will be forced to use a bigger lineup and compromise their edge in speed and offensive firepower. On the defensive end, San Antonio needs to make Miami a one-man show. When James is forced to take a majority of the shots, the Heat offense becomes predictable and defendable. At the end of the day, the Spurs win this series if they establish a balanced offensive attack of their own while forcing James to try to carry the offensive load for Miami by himself.

The Heat Win If:

As brilliant has James has been throughout the postseason, he knows as well as anyone that a championship simply can’t be won single handedly. If the Heat are going to repeat, James has to be both a scorer and a facilitator, and Wade and Bosh have provide consistent scoring support. Meanwhile, Allen and the other Miami role players have to hit enough perimeter shots to open up driving lanes for James to work his magic. On the defensive end, Miami has to keep Parker from getting anywhere he wants on the court in order to disrupt the San Antonio offense. The Heat also need to keep Duncan and company off the offensive glass in order to jumpstart their own deadly fast-break offense while preventing the Spurs from getting easy second-chance points. In the end, Miami can win this series if James is able to be the centerpiece of a balanced offense while the Heat defense makes life tough for Parker and holds its own against San Antonio’s size inside.

Bottom Line:

When James left Cleveland for Miami, a big reason for the decision was so that he would have more support when he ran up against teams like San Antonio. Ironically, the Heat are looking every bit as one dimensional as the Cavaliers did when the Spurs dismantled them in the NBA Finals six years ago. Not to mention the fact that unlike last year when the Heat faced an Oklahoma City team that was clearly overwhelmed by the big stage, San Antonio is a playoff-tested, experienced team with one the best coaches in the game in Gregg Popovich. With Bosh looking lost and Wade struggling, the Heat have weaknesses that Popovich and his team will exploit. Sure, James’ individual greatness and the occasional flashes of the old Wade will likely lead to a couple of wins for the Heat. However, the Spurs are the more complete team right now, and they will get the best of James once again.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs Win in 6 Games

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Series Odds
San Antonio Spurs +190
Miami Heat -230

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