2013 NBA Finals Game 7 Picks: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions: In what has been a back-and-forth, drama-filled NBA Finals, it is only fitting that the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat will decide the series and the championship in Game 7 Thursday night in South Beach. The stage doesn’t get any bigger, and the pressure doesn’t get any greater than a winner-take-all game with a title hanging in the balance. Legacies are on the line, and this is the type of game that can define a franchise for decades and define players for the rest of their lives. There’s no tomorrow for either side, and while one team will celebrate a championship, the other will have nothing to do but think about what could have been for the entire offseason. In the final game of the 2013 NBA season, the defending champion Heat are six-point favorites.
Of course, it’s tough to discuss Game 7 without talking about the incredible ending to Game 6. Before the season began, I predicted the Spurs to win the series in six games, and with a little less than 30 seconds remaining, I felt pretty good about the pick. In fact, San Antonio had more than a 98 percent chance of winning the game at that point, and the podium was even being wheeled toward the court for the trophy presentation. Well, some missed free throws by the Spurs, some offensive rebounds by Miami, and a game-tying 3-pointer from the corner by Ray Allen with 5.2 second remaining changed the course of the game and potentially the series as the Heat went on to win 103-100 in overtime.
Heading into Thursday’s series finale, questions abound for both sides. The already-hobbled Dwyane Wade injured his other knee early in Game 6, Chris Bosh still can’t find the range on his jump shot, and LeBron James was a ghost until a ferocious fourth-quarter performance. Meanwhile, Tony Parker missed 17 of his 23 shots on his injured hamstring in Game 6, Tim Duncan played his most minutes since 2008, and Manu Ginobili committed a career-high eight turnovers. That being said, rest assured that the gutty performances seen from both sides in Game 6 will be nothing compared to Thursday night’s action.
The Spurs Win If:
For the Spurs, winning Game 7 requires them to forget about how they lost Game 6 and instead remember how they were able to put themselves in such great position to win. Duncan was unstoppable in the post throughout the first half of Tuesday’s game, but he took just five shots after halftime. Granted, San Antonio has had success attacking quickly on the offensive end, but when a quick score isn’t available, the Spurs need to play through Duncan in order to still get quality shots on a consistent basis. After all, the Spurs have been able to contain James and the Heat offense for stretches by forcing them to become a half-court team. If San Antonio’s offense is able to attack the Miami defense before it can set up while its defense is able to set up before Miami can attack, the Spurs can turn the Heat into a perimeter-oriented team and should ultimately win the game.
The Heat Win If:
The Heat have basically been given a second life in this series, and if they channel the emotion from Game 6 into a focused effort rather than overconfidence, they will be in great shape. James in particular needs to be the unstoppable force he was throughout the fourth quarter rather than the indecisive, passive player he was in the first three quarters. After all, we are talking about a player that has the highest Game 7 scoring average in NBA history heading into Thursday’s game. He has to be that type of brilliant if the Heat are going to win. Let’s face it. Wade can’t be counted on for more than a few good plays here and there, and Bosh can’t really be counted on for anything. Yes, Miami’s needs to bring the defensive intensity all night, but this game starts and ends with James. If he goes for 30-plus points and pushes for another triple-double, the Heat can win. If he isn’t the best player on the court, they won’t
Bottom Line:
While it is easy to assume that the Spurs will be emotionally and physically exhausted after having a championship slip from their grasps, the results from Game 6 basically just fit the trend of the entire series. Both sides have exchanged statements wins throughout the first six games, and every time Miami has posted a big win, they have followed it up with a lackluster effort and a loss. Granted, the Heat’s victory in Game 6 was far for miraculous than anything that has preceded it in this series, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t due for another letdown. After all, the core of San Antonio’s team have won four titles and played in countless big games. The Spurs aren’t going to be intimidated by one loss, even if did come in spectacular fashion. Not to mention the fact that Gregg Popovich has had an answer after each of Miami’s victories in the series. At the end of the day, this has been an evenly-matched series between two great teams, and there is reason no team has won consecutive games yet. I don’t expect things to change Thursday night, and even if San Antonio doesn’t win, it is hard to see them losing by more than six.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs (+6) Cover the Spread in Game 7
9:07 pm (ABC) NBA Championship Final Game 7 – Best of Seven – 2-3-2
2513 San Antonio Spurs
2514 Miami Heat Spread: -6 Total: 188
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