2012 NBA Predictions: Are the Los Angeles Lakers the Favorite to Win the Western Conference after Landing Dwight Howard?

2012 NBA Predictions: Are the Los Angeles Lakers the Favorite to Win the Western Conference in 2012-2013 after Landing Dwight Howard?: After months of speculation and rumors, Dwight Howard finally got his wish. The Orlando Magic traded away the All-Star center as part of a four-time deal that ultimately sent Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers. Remarkably, the Lakers managed to keep Pau Gasol, and after adding two-time MVP point guard Steve Nash earlier in the offseason, the franchise has more than reloaded its roster. Now, the question for Kobe Bryant and company is whether the new-look Lakers are the best team in the Western Conference. If you believe the oddsmakers, they are. Following the trade, Los Angeles saw its odds to win next year’s NBA title to improve to 3/1. Those are the best odds among any Western Conference team and second only to the defending champion Miami Heat in the entire NBA. While the Lakers certainly look impressive on paper, there are a few underlying factors that could make betting on Los Angeles a risk that isn’t worth the potential reward.

Like I said, the offseason wheeling and dealing by the Lakers’ front office has definitely improved the team. Nash gives the team a floor general that can distribute and create plenty of shot opportunities for all of the superstars on this roster. His game fits perfectly with both the finesse game of Pau Gasol and the power game of Howard. Nash and Gasol can run pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops, while Howard can finish around the rim after Nash sets the table. Nash also gives Los Angeles its first legitimate offensive threat at point guard in years, which should help draw perimeter defenders away from Bryant.

Howard, on the other hand, is the defensive presence in the paint that the Lakers have been missing. Yes, Gasol is a solid shot blocker, but he isn’t a physical player that wears down opposing big men. Howard is, and he will provide a major upgrade both on the boards and on defense. Keep in mind that Nash is a weak defender, but having Howard waiting at the rim can erase a lot of other defensive mistakes.

Of course, there are some negatives to this Lakers’ roster. Bryant has a ton of mileage on his legs, and Nash is 38 years old and has battled back issues in recent years. Not to mention that Howard is coming off back surgery and could miss the start of the regular season. The Lakers’ bench is still weak, and they still don’t have much in the way of perimeter firepower. Health could become a major issue with this team, and while managing minutes is possible during the regular season, the lack of depth will force Nash, Bryant, Gasol and Howard to play a ton come playoff time. One injury at the wrong time could put a quick end to the Lakers’ season.

The other major problem the Lakers will likely face is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Durant and company are the defending Western Conference champions, and the rolled past the Lakers to do so. The Thunder also have plenty of talent in their own right, and they are much younger than the guys in Los Angeles. Nash has zero chance of containing the speedy Russell Westbrook, and with Durant and Harden able to score so effectively from the perimeter, Howard’s presence in the middle may not matter. Even if the Lakers stay healthy, there is no guarantee that they can overtake Oklahoma City.

If bettors need any more reasons to question the Lakers’ title chances next season, look no further than the Miami Heat. When LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh joined forces, they needed a year to truly gel. Los Angeles will be facing a similar task and will be doing so in a much tougher conference. I don’t like to make a habit of betting against Kobe Bryant, and the Lakers could definitely win a title in the upcoming season. However, health, age and the Thunder could just as easily get in the way. There isn’t a ton of money to be made on a team getting 3/1 odds to win the title anyway, and anyone that believes the Lakers are suddenly unstoppable needs to think again.

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