2012 NBA Picks: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks on Christmas Day 12/25/12 The main course on a buffet of Christmas Day games is an NBA Finals rematch between Oklahoma City and Miami. The Thunder (21-5) roll into South Beach looking for revenge while the Heat (18-6) are looking to show that their victory last postseason was no fluke. The game could also be a preview of this year’s NBA Finals, as well. The Thunder and Heat enter the matchup with the best records in their respective conferences. Playing at home, Miami is a 2 ½-point favorite.
Led by defending NBA LeBron James, Miami has been an offensive juggernaut this year. The Heat enter Tuesday’s game with the fourth-best scoring offense along with the best field goal percentage in the NBA. Meanwhile, offseason additions of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis have helped make the Heat the top 3-point shooting team in terms of percentage, as well. Defensively, Miami has slipped a bit from last season, ranking just 15th in points allowed thus far. The Heat also struggle on the boards, but that has been a chronic problem since the athletic but smaller lineup of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has been assembled.
The Thunder have plenty of offensive firepower, as well. Kevin Durant is having an MVP-caliber season in his own right, and he and Russell Westbrook form the best scoring duo in the NBA. Throw in the solid scoring provided by Kevin Martin off the bench, and it is no surprise that Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Meanwhile, dominant shot blocker Serge Ibaka leads a solid defense that ranks 11th in points, allowed 13th in rebound and third in opponent’s field goal percentage.
The Thunder Win If:
All eyes will be on Durant and James, but Westbrook will be Oklahoma City’s most important player Tuesday. With his speed and scoring ability, he has a huge advantage over any player Miami can play at the point guard spot. If Westbrook has a big game both scoring the ball and breaking down the Heat defense at the point of attack, he will make an already powerful Thunder offense even better. Defensively, Ibaka and the rest of the Oklahoma City big men have to keep pace with fast, athletic Miami lineup without getting into foul trouble. If Russell has a strong game and the Thunder don’t have to sacrifice their size advantage in order to keep up with James and company, they should be able outscore the Heat and pick up the win.
The Heat Win If:
When Miami knocked off the Thunder in five games in last year’s NBA Finals, they used a smaller lineup to neutralize the size of the Oklahoma City frontcourt. The Heat have committed to the same strategy this season on a full-time basis, loading up on perimeter players in the offseason. If James and company force the Thunder to adjust their regular lineup to play at Miami’s pace, the Heat could continue their run of dominance against Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Miami is going to be in trouble if the Thunder are able to keep their big men on the court, control the boards, and make the Heat run a lot of half-court sets on offense.
Bottom Line:
Although Miami still has the personnel to create the same matchups that gave Oklahoma City problems in the playoffs, the Heat have yet to show the consistent effort on defense that helped them win a championship. A lack of focus on the defensive end is a recipe for disaster against a high-scoring team like Oklahoma City. Call it a championship hangover or whatever you want, but Miami has shown in two ugly losses to New York and losses to Golden State and Washington that its focus is on the bigger picture. At the end of the day, Durant and company need to win this game more than Miami dies. The Heat a championship under their belt, and it has shown on occasion when they just don’t match an opponent’s intensity down the stretch of a game. Even on a big stage, I just don’t think Miami will show the same effort in any regular game that it will once the postseason begins. As a result, the Thunder will pick up the win.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (+2 ½) Cover the Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat
Spread: Miami -2.5
Total: 205
Time: 5:30 PM EST on ABC
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