2012 NBA Picks: Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks 2/12/2012

NBA Betting – Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – NBA Picks and Odds 2/12/12: The top two teams in the Southeast Division will be on center stage Sunday night when the Miami Heat (20-7) goes on the road to face the Atlanta Hawks (18-9). Miami has a two-game lead on the Hawks, but both teams are jockeying for playoff position amongst themselves and the rest of the Eastern Conference. For Atlanta, the meeting is chance its make a statement against one of the best teams in the NBA. For Miami, it is a chance to put an end to its recent road woes. Even though the Hawks are the home team, the Heat is a 4 ½-point favorite.

It is the third meeting of the year between the two franchises, with the series tied at a game apiece. Atlanta knocked off the Heat 100-92 in January, handing Miami its first loss at the time. Meanwhile, the Heat won a triple-overtime thriller in Atlanta later in the month, even though stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade missed the game. In Sunday’s rubber match, it will be the Hawks that won’t be at full strength. Atlanta center Al Horford is out with an injury, leaving the Hawks without its top scoring big man.

The two sides have completely different styles of play. Miami ranks second in points per game, preferring to play at a fast pace and to push the tempo. The Heat has a deep bench loaded with 3-point gunners, which plays right into the team’s high-scoring mentality. Atlanta on the other hand likes to play in the half court, slowing the pace and wearing down teams on the defensive end. It shows on the stat sheet, and the Hawks are allowing the fifth-fewest points in the NBA. Sunday’s showdown will be a clash of styles, and if the score doesn’t reach triple digits, Atlanta has the edge.

Of course, keeping Miami below 100 points won’t be easy. James has been playing at an MVP level all season, and Wade has been averaging almost 28 points per game since returning from injury. More importantly, Bosh has been averaging almost 20 points a game this season, and without Horford manning the middle for Atlanta, Bosh could be in a for a big game. For what it’s worth, the Heat is 11-1 when Bosh scores 19 or more points.

If Atlanta is going to slow down Miami’s trio of superstars, point guard Jeff Teague has to manage the offense. Teague has had a strong season, but at times, he has become more of a scorer than a distributor. The Hawks need him to contribute, but they also need him to keep shooting guard Joe Johnson and forward Josh Smith involved on the offensive end. Atlanta doesn’t have the firepower to compete with Miami in a high-scoring game, which means Teague has to make sure the Hawks are getting efficient looks all night long.

The X-factor in the game could be Smith. He is the one player on Atlanta’s roster that has the athleticism to guard either James or Wade. He is one of the few players in the NBA that averages more than two blocks and more than one steal per game, and his speed and wingspan allows him to guard a variety of players. Smith has also picked up a lot of the slack in Horford’s absence on the defensive glass. With Atlanta needing a low-scoring game, Smith has to make sure the Heat isn’t getting second-chance opportunities.

In the end, the loss of Horford is going to take a toll on the Hawks. Granted, they have done a solid job of keeping Miami in check in the first two meetings, but James and Wade missed one of the games and Wade was hobbled in the other. Miami won’t be missing any crucial components this time around, and Atlanta will need every bit of scoring it can get. James, Wade and Bosh are meshing to the tune of nearly 70 points per game, and even the defensive-oriented Hawks will have trouble keeping up.

Prediction: Miami Heat (-4 ½) Covers the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite – Miami -4.5 Total – OVER/UNDER 189.5

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