NBA Betting – Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – NBA Picks and Odds 2/17/12: Last season, the Dallas Mavericks surprised a lot of people by putting years of playoff disappointments behind them and finally winning a championship. This year, the Philadelphia 76ers are turning heads. At 20-10, Philadelphia sits comfortably atop the Atlantic Division and appears headed to the postseason and probably home-court advantage in the first round. Of course, the defending champs aren’t doing too bad either, and a five-game winning streak has the Mavericks at 19-11 and within striking distance of the top spot in their division and in the Western Conference. The two teams will take center stage Friday night in Philadelphia, in a game televised on ESPN. The upstart 76ers are three-point favorites.
Both teams have used a similar formula for success this season, relying heavily on stingy defenses to slow down opponents. Philadelphia ranks second in the NBA in points allowed (87.3), while Dallas ranks sixth (91.3). Not surprisingly, both teams rebound efficiently and limit opponents to very few second-chance opportunities. Needless to say, Friday’s game has all the makings of a low-scoring, physical game that is played mainly in the half court.
While Dallas may appear to have the edge in momentum thanks to its five-game winning streak, the Mavericks are also battling a myriad of injuries to their backcourt. Versatile defender Delonte West is going to miss Friday’s game, along with the clutch-shooting Jason Terry. The situation gets worse because backup guard Rodrigue Beaubois will likely be out as he deals with the death of his father. The injuries will force Dallas to rely heavily on veteran point guard Jason Kidd, who has just returned from an injury of his own.
Asking Kidd to carry the load at his age is a dangerous proposition against any team, but it is particularly dangerous against the 76ers’ backcourt. Philadelphia has five guards averaging at least 8.9 points per game, including leading scorers Louis Williams (16.1) and Jrue Holiday (13.7). The 76ers’ guards are also the best in the NBA at taking care of the basketball. Philadelphia is averaging a league-low 10.1 turnovers per game, further limiting any easy scoring chances for their opponents. With the Mavericks relying solely on Kidd and some inexperienced backups, Holiday and the rest of the 76ers’ guards could dominate the game.
Philadelphia may have a huge advantage in the backcourt, but Dallas still has scoring machine Dirk Nowitzki manning the forward position. He is averaging an uncharacteristically low 18.2 points per game this year, but since taking a few games off to improve his conditioning, Nowitzki has scored 20 or more in six of his last seven games. The 76ers don’t have a player that can match Nowitzki’s size, range and ball handling ability, and if he has a big game offensively, he could keep the Mavericks within striking distance.
The X-factor in the game could be forward Shawn Marion. He is third on the team in scoring (12.2), and with Terry out, Marion will have to pick up some of the slack. More importantly, he is a versatile, lengthy defender and is the one Dallas player that can match up with the both the Philadelphia guards and swingmen like Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young. With the Mavericks’ depleted backcourt, Marion will need to play a ton of minutes and shoulder the load on the defensive end.
At the end of the day, it’s hard to imagine Dallas being able to overcome so many injuries to its backcourt against a team as talented at the guard positions as Philadelphia. Nowitzki is the type of player that can make up for a lot of other shortcomings, but he can’t guard the likes of Holiday and Williams and can only compensate so much with his scoring ability. The Mavericks are simply outmanned in this one, and the 76ers’ young guards should take control of the game down the stretch.
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers (-3) Cover the Spread
Current Odds: Favorite – 76ers -3 Total – OVER/UNDER 179
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