2012 NBA Finals Picks: Game 4 Oklahoma City @ Miami Heat Odds and Free Picks

2012 NBA Finals Expert Picks: Game 2 Oklahoma City @ Miami Heat Vegas Odds and Free Picks: For the Oklahoma City Thunder, their season and championship hopes are likely on the line in Tuesday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Already down 2-1 in their series against the Miami Heat, falling behind 3-1 with still another game to come in South Beach would be a death sentence for the Thunder. Meanwhile, Miami would love nothing more than to deliver that death blow and move to within one win of winning a championship and fulfilling their lofty expectations. Playing at home, the Heat are 3 ½-point favorites in Tuesday’s matchup.

Of course, Miami was up 2-1 in their NBA Finals series against Dallas last season before dropping three straight, and the Thunder just came back from a 2-0 hole against San Antonio in the Western Conference finals. From the Heat’s standpoint, the biggest difference is that they are up in the series with the next two games to be played in South Beach instead of on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have the added advantage of having experienced the atmosphere of the NBA Finals just one year ago, while the young Oklahoma City players are dealing with the same pressures for the first time.

In fact, it appears that the pressure of playing for a title could be getting to the Thunder. Oklahoma City was the best free throw shooting team in the regular season, but in Game 3, it was Miami knocking down clutch free throw after clutch free throw while OKC struggled at the line. More importantly, OKC’s role players like Serge Ibaka and James Harden have struggled to find a rhythm, while Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers have stepped up for Miami. Even Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks seems to be cracking a bit. While he let stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook sit on the bench for almost five minutes at the end of the third quarter of Game 3, the Thunder watched a 10-point lead slip away. Miami never really relinquished the momentum after that.

Perhaps most importantly, Miami has been winning the battle of the stars. Yes, Durant has been brilliant for the Thunder. However, LeBron James has been even better for the Heat, averaging more than 30 points and more than 10 rebounds per game thus far. He seems to have found the killer instinct he has lacked in his previous two appearances in the NBA Finals, and he is attacking the basket early and often on offense and wearing down Durant on the defensive end. Case in point, James held Durant to just four points in the fourth quarter of Miami’s Game 3 win.

Despite both sides having some of the highest-scoring offenses during the regular season, this series has really featured a hard-nosed, physical style of play. As talented as the Thunder are at every position, there really is no substitute for the experience of playing for a title. Miami found that out first hand last season at the hands of a Dallas team that had suffered a heartbreaking collapse in the NBA Finals just a few years earlier. This time around, it is the Heat playing with a bitter taste in their mouth, and in the last two games, James, Dwyane Wade and even Chris Bosh just look like the want to win more than the Thunder players do.

Armed with a resolve that was formed in part because of last year’s failure, the Heat have suddenly found the poise in crunch time that they seemed to have been missing since James and Wade joined forces. Even though Oklahoma City still looks like the more-balanced team on paper, the Heat have been the better team where it counts. In fact, the Heat have actually been very kind to bettors lately. Miami has delivered against the spread, especially at home. The Heat have covered the spread in four of their last five games and in six of their last seven home games. Miami has Durant and company on the ropes, and they aren’t going to back off the throttle until they have won a title.

Prediction: Miami Heat (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite – Miami -3.5 Total – OVER/UNDER 192

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