2020 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets at Las Vegas Motor Speedway: While it can definitely be fun to throw some money at a few longshots at an unpredictable track like Daytona, serious bettors can really start to cash in starting this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval will host Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, and with the variance of the draft no longer a factor, we can take a much more calculated approach to identifying the frontrunners.
Historically, mile-and-a-half tracks like Las Vegas have been dominated by the top drivers from the top teams. If you look at the drivers who perform the best at the 1.5-mile ovals in a given year, the list will likely mirror the list of championship favorites.
Granted, you probably won’t be able to turn a small wager into a huge payday at a track like Las Vegas, but you should be able to narrow the list of likely winners down to just a few drivers. By investing a little more money into a just a couple of frontrunners, you can still come away with a nice profit.
Let’s take a closer look at this week’s top bets for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
2020 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Favorites to Bet
Kevin Harvick
No driver scored more points at the 1.5-mile ovals in 2019 than Harvick, and his eight Top 10s in the 11 races were tied for the most. eight Top 10s in the 11 races. Perhaps more importantly, Harvick led a series-best 590 laps at the mile-and-a-half tracks, leading 40-plus laps seven times. He is a two-time winner at Las Vegas for his career, and he led a race-high 88 laps and finished fourth in the March race last season, and he led 47 laps in a runner-up effort in the fall. Harvick should be a major player for the win Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr.
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about the loss of his former crew chief, Cole Pearn, but Truex is an elite driver in the prime of his career, and he is at his best at the 1.5-mile tracks. His eight Top 10s in the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019 tied for the series lead, and he was one of just three drivers with multiple wins in those races. One of those victories came at Las Vegas in the fall, and since 2015, Truex owns a 3.5 average in five starts at the track.
Joey Logano
Logano is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and after leading 86 laps in his victory in March, he led a race-high 105 laps in the return trip in the fall. Logano is riding a streak of eight straight Top 10s at Vegas, and he has led laps in every race in that span, leading 25 or more laps seven times and 40-plus laps six times. He’s basically a lock to have a car capable of running up front and contending for the win Sunday.
Brad Keselowski
He tied for the series lead with five Top 5s and two wins at the mile-and-a-half tracks last year, and Keselowski has one of the best resumes at Las Vegas. He has finished seventh or better in nine straight starts here, winning three times and finishing second and third in the two races in 2019. Keselowski has led double-digit laps in six races during that stretch, leading 50-plus laps three times.
Big Name to Avoid
Kyle Busch
The defending champ is a threat to win each and every week, but since he’s always among the betting favorites, it only makes sense to back him at his best tracks. Las Vegas doesn’t land on that list. His lone win here came back in 2009, and he has never led more than 56 laps in a race here. Busch should be able to compete for a Top 5 Sunday, but I don’t think he is the smartest bet among the favorites.
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