2020 Pennzoil 400 Odds & Predictions – Value Bets and Sleepers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway: After being able to get creative with our longshot picks for the season-opening Daytona 500, we have to dial back our expectations a bit as we head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. Don’t get me wrong, we could still have an unexpected winner in Sunday’s Penzzoil 400, especially since drivers and teams will still be getting a feel for things in 2020. However, you definitely need to narrow your scope when hunting for value bets.
The fact is that the high attrition and pack racing at Daytona allow teams that normally can’t stay on the lead to legitimately contend for the win. The same cannot be said for tracks like Las Vegas. In fact, mile-and-a-half ovals like Vegas are the type of tracks least likely to see an upset winner. The big names and big teams dominant the 1.5-mile ovals, and I don’t expect that to change this season.
That being said, you can still find value when betting at these tracks by targeting the No. 2 and No. 3 drivers on the powerhouse teams. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott are all household names, but they all have plenty of teammates who have access to the same equipment and same setup information.
You can still hit on a big score in Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. You just have to be smart about the longshots you take a chance on.
2020 Pennzoil 400 Odds & Predictions: Value Bets and Sleepers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Value Bets
Ryan Blaney
Blaney’s record at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2019 might not jump of the page, but bad luck and bad pit strategy ruined several strong runs. Plus, Las Vegas has been one of his best tracks since coming to the Cup Series. Blaney has finished seventh or better in five of his last six starts here, finishing in the top 5 in three of his four starts at the track with Team Penske. Both of his teammates are listed among the betting favorites this weekend, and Blaney gives you exposure to the same equipment with a much bigger profit margin.
Erik Jones
While we still haven’t seen a true breakout season from the youngest driver in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable, Jones has amassed a solid resume at the mile-and-a-half tracks. Last year, he tied for the series lead with eight top-10s in the 11 races, finishing seventh or better seven times and fourth or better four times. These aren’t bad odds for any driver with JGR equipment, let alone a driver like Jones with a history of success at tracks like Las Vegas.
Alex Bowman
One of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season had to be Bowman’s emergence at the mile-and-a-half ovals. He finished in the Top 20 in all 11 races, finishing 11th or better eight times. Bowman finished 11th and sixth in the two races at Las Vegas, and he led 63 laps in a runner-up effort at Kansas and led 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland. Including that runner-up run at Kansas, he closed last season with five top-10s in the final seven races at 1.5-mile ovals, ranking in the top five in points scored in that stretch. Bowman absolutely knows how to compete for wins at tracks like Vegas.
Sleeper Special
Christopher Bell
The 2019 rookie class is one of the deepest and most talented in the history of the sport, and the first-year driver best positioned for immediate success is Bell. Not only was he dominant at the XFINITY level over the past two seasons, but he will essentially be driving Joe Gibbs Racing equipment after JGR agreed to increase technical support to Leavine Family Racing in exchange for putting Bell behind the wheel. There’s always a learning curve with rookies, but we have seen the special ones win races right away, and Bell appears to be a star in the making.
2020 Pennzoil 400 Odds
Kyle Busch 9/2
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Martin Truex Jr. 5/1
Brad Keselowski 6/1
Joey Logano 7/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kyle Larson 10/1
Chase Elliott 14/1
Ryan Blaney 20/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Erik Jones 30/1
Alex Bowman 30/1
William Byron 30/1
Jimmie Johnson 40/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
Aric Almirola 80/1
Matt DiBenedetto 60/1
Christopher Bell 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Cole Custer 100/1
Chris Buescher 300/1
Tyler Reddick 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500/1
Daniel Suarez 500/1
John Hunter Nemechek 1000/1
Ryan Preece 1000/1
Ty Dillon 1000/1
Darrell Wallace Jr. 1000/1
Michael McDowell 1000/1
Corey LaJoie 2000/1
Ross Chastain 5000/1
Brennan Poole 5000/1
Joey Gade 5000/1
Quin Houff 5000/1
JJ Yeley 5000/1
Timmy Hill 5000/1
BJ McLeod 5000/1
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