2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets & Sleepers at Sonoma Raceway: Road racing returns to the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series this weekend with a trip to Sonoma Raceway. The track will host Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, and if you are looking to hit it big on a surprise winner, this is a week to be aggressive with your bets.
A far cry from the typical oval, road courses test a driver’s all-around ability by forcing them to constantly shift and work the brakes to navigate a variety of corner layouts. Sonoma happens to be one of the most technically demanding road courses, and with NASCAR’s decision to include a section known as “The Carousel” this season, the track balloons from a 1.99-mile track to a 12-turn, 2.52-mile course.
If the new layout wasn’t enough of a wrinkle, the long laps allow drivers to pit under green without losing a lap, which opens up a bunch of opportunities for crew chiefs to get creative with pot strategy. This is a race that can be stolen with a savvy call on pit road, especially if a caution falls at the right time.
Don’t be afraid to roll the dice this weekend, and I have highlighted some of my favorite value bets and longshots for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks & Predictions: Value Bets & Sleepers at Sonoma Raceway
Value Bets
Brad Keselowski (18/1)
With three wins under his belt already in 2019, Keselowski has been one of the elite performers in the Cup Series. Why he is sitting at 18/1 odds is beyond me, but I’ll gladly take advantage. Granted, he has had some bad luck in some recent road course starts, but he has also shown plenty of speed. His 121 laps led over the last eight road races are the second most of any driver, and Keselowski has led double-digit laps in five of those starts, leading 20-plus laps four times.
Ryan Blaney (25/1)
The last time the Cup Series visited a road course, Blaney was celebrating in victory lane at the Charlotte Roval. He has finished 12th or better in four of his last five road course starts, and he has three top-10s in that span. Considering he has only made seven road course starts at the Cup level, it is a safe bet to say Blaney’s best is yet to come. At 25/1, I’ll take a steady top-10 threat with a road course win already under his belt.
Alex Bowman (100/1)
I know he isn’t considered a road racing ace, but I’m shocked Bowman is a 100/1 longshot to win this weekend. For starters, the guy has been one of the hottest drivers in the series, and his five top-10s in the last six races are tied for the most in the series. Bowman has scored the second most points of any driver in that stretch, logging three second-place finishes. Perhaps more importantly, he finished inside the top 15 in all three road course races last year, logging a top-10 at Sonoma and a top-five finish at the Roval in Charlotte. These are incredible odds for a driver who has been knocking on the door of his first Cup win.
Sleeper Special
Matt Tifft (300/1)
Casual fans probably don’t even know who Tifft is, but he was a developmental driver for both Joe Gibbs Racing and Richard Childress Racing at the XFINITY level before making a surprise jump to the Cup Series with Front Row Motorsports for the 2019 season. He doesn’t have the most experience in a Cup car or the best equipment, but road courses can be an equalizer. With four finishes of fourth or better in six road course starts in the XFINITY Series, Tifft has shown he knows how to handle himself. If I am throwing a few bucks at a total shot-in-the-dark bet, Tifft is my choice.
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2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds at Sonoma Raceway
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Martin Truex Jr. 9/2
Clint Bowyer 6/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Chase Elliott 6/1
Kurt Busch 10/1
Joey Logano 10/1
Denny Hamlin 14/1
Brad Keselowski 18/1
Jimmie Johnson 25/1
Ryan Blaney 25/1
Daniel Suarez 25/1
Erik Jones 40/1
Kyle Larson 40/1
Aric Almirola 60/1
Daniel Hemric 60/1
Chris Buescher 100/1
Alex Bowman 100/1
Michael McDowell 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
William Byron 100/1
Matt Tifft 300/1
Austin Dillon 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500/1
Matt DiBenedetto 500/1
Ryan Preece 1000/1
David Ragan 2000/1
Ty Dillon 2000/1
Field (all others) 300/1
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