2019 STP 500 Picks and Predictions: Value Bets at Martinsville Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Martinsville Speedway this weekend, and the first short track race of the season has to be a welcomed sight if you like gambling on longshots.
Yes, there is a small group of big names who have dominated the flat, half-mile oval over the years, but Martinsville is still a track that typically features decent attrition. More importantly, it is a track where a driver can easily get taken out in someone else’s mess or ruin their own day with a mistake. It is also a track where pit strategy can trump speed, especially on a short sprint to the finish.
While I’ll still put plenty of my money on the favorites for Sunday’s race, I will also put a small amount down on a number of drivers getting longer odds. Check out my favorite value bets and sleepers for the STP 500 at Martinsville.
Also, check out Sunday’s 2019 STP 500 odds.
2019 STP 500 Picks & Predictions: Martinsville Speedway
Value Bets
Ryan Blaney (20/1)
While he doesn’t have a win to show for it, Blaney has quietly been one of the strongest performers so far in 2019. He enters Martinsville on the heels of back-to-back top-five finishes, including a near win at Phoenix. He has also led laps in four of the five races this season, leading double-digit laps three times. Blaney also led 145 laps on his way to a third-place finish at Martinsville last March. At 20/1, you find any driver running as well as Blaney that offers as much room for profit.
Chase Elliott (20/1)
It has been a slow start to the year for Elliott, and he has looked more like a top-15 driver than the title contender who won three races in the second half of last season. The struggles have caused his odds to drop a bit, but he could be primed for a breakout at Martinsville. Flat tracks have been some of his best, and Elliott finished in the top 10 in both races here last year. He also led 123 laps in the fall race in 2017 before being dumped from the lead in the closing laps. I recommend trying to take advantage of Elliott at one of his best tracks because as soon as he has a good run, you won’t find him at 20/1 odds again.
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Kurt Busch (25/1)
Martinsville hasn’t been his best track in terms of consistency, but while he has just three top-five finishes in 37 starts here, two of those were wins. He also ran well in both races here a year ago, finishing 11th in the spring and sixth in the fall. I also love what I’ve seen out of Busch in his first year with Chip Ganassi Racing. He has finished seventh or better in all four races since Daytona, picking up a couple of top-five finishes and leading laps in two of those events. There aren’t any other drivers who have been challenging for top-five finishes on a weekly basis getting longer odds to win Sunday.
Sleeper Special
Ryan Newman (80/1)
There weren’t a lot of longshots who stood out to me this weekend, but if I’m throwing a few bucks at a serious dark horse, it’s going to be Newman. Martinsville is one of those tracks where a driver can muscle his way to a solid finish, and few drivers are as tough on the track as Newman. He has a 13.2 average finish over the last 10 races here, picking up five top-10 finishes in that stretch. He’s someone who should be able to stay within striking distance of the front, and a good break with a caution or savvy pit strategy could put him in position to steal the win.
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