2019 STP 500 Odds & Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets at Martinsville Speedway: After spending a few weeks out on the West Coast, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads back east this weekend for a trip to Martinsville Speedway. The flat, half-mile oval will host Sunday’s STP 500, the first short track race of 2019.
Although Martinsville holds the distinction of being both the shortest and slowest track on the schedule, it can also make an argument for being the most exciting as drivers are forced to bump and bang there way around the paperclip-shaped oval for 500 laps.
The tight racing conditions can lead to some high attrition, but more often than not, a familiar face has ended up in victory lane. In fact, Martinsville has been a track where specific drivers have absolutely dominated for different stretches.
Check out my top picks among the betting favorites for Sunday’s STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
2019 STP 500 Odds & Predictions: Martinsville Speedway
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (+220)
Busch has been the best driver in the series in 2019, posting two wins and a 2.6 average finish through the first five races. He’s also been the best in the business at Martinsville recently, reeling off seven straight top-five finishes. Busch has a 2.9 average finish during that stretch, picking up a pair of wins and leading at least 100 laps four times. Any stat you look at points to Busch being the favorite to pick up another win this weekend.
Brad Keselowski (+525)
He is one of the best flat track drivers in the series today, and Keselowski has been on a tear at Martinsville recently. He has a 4.5 average finish over the last six races here, cracking the top 10 in all six of those starts and finishing in the top five in five of them. Keselowski has one win during that same stretch, and he has led more than 40 laps three times in the last four races here, leading more than 100 laps twice. He’s one of the safest bets to battle for the win Sunday.
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Joey Logano (+750)
The last time the Cup Series visited Martinsville, Logano was celebrating in victory lane after leading 309 laps. He is also tied for the series lead with seven top-10 finishes in the last 10 races here, and he has led laps in nine of the races during that span, leading more than 50 laps five times. Along with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski, Logano has been one of the elite performers so far in 2019. Out of those three, Logano offers the most room for profit this weekend.
Denny Hamlin (+1100)
Martinsville might be his best track on the schedule, and Hamlin’s five wins here are his most at any track. Perhaps more impressively, he has led laps in 17 of the last 19 races here, so he is practically a lock to spend some time out front Sunday. Hamlin led 111 laps in the March race here last year, and he was the runner-up in the fall race. Among the current Martinsville masters, he offers the most room for profit at +1100.
Big Name to Avoid
Martin Truex Jr. (+625)
I know that Truex is in the middle of a great stretch at Martinsville, and he came with in a lap of winning the fall race here a year ago. However, he didn’t win that race, and he’s actually never won a Cup Series race at a short track. Truex has had plenty of close calls, and while he should certainly have a great chance at a top-five finish, it’s still hard to buy into him at these odds. Joey Logano, who won here last fall, and Denny Hamlin, who has five wins here, both offer higher payout potential.
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2019 STP 500 Betting
2019 STP 500 – Odds To Win @ Martinsville Speedway
Driver To Win
Kyle Busch +200
Brad Keselowski +500
Joey Logano +600
Martin Truex Jr +600
Denny Hamlin +1000
Clint Bowyer +1000
Kevin Harvick +1500
Chase Elliott +2000
Ryan Blaney +2000
Aric Almirola +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Jimmie Johnson +3000
Erik Jones +5000
Kyle Larson +5000
Austin Dillon +8000
Alex Bowman +8000
Daniel Suarez +8000
Ryan Newman +8000
Field +2000
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