2019 Quaker State 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Kentucky Speedway: After a crazy race at Daytona that was marred by wrecks and Mother Nature, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kentucky Speedway this weekend. Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 will be the seventh race of the 2019 season at a mile-and-a-half oval, and after the pack racing at Daytona produced arguably the biggest upset winner in series history last weekend, the big names should go back to flexing their muscles in this one.
The big names from the top teams have always had an edge at the 1.5-mile tracks, and despite the new rules package being used this year, that trend hasn’t changed. Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have combined to win five of the six races so far. Alex Bowman won the other race, and while he may not be a household name yet, he still drives for a powerhouse team in Hendrick Motorsports.
In other words, you won’t want to go to far outside the box with your bets this weekend because the smart money is on a familiar face celebrating in victory lane Saturday night. Check out my top bets for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway.
2019 Quaker State 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Kentucky Speedway
The Favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)
The 1.5-mile ovals have been his bread and butter for more than two years now, and Truex has been unstoppable at Kentucky recently. He led 152 laps in a win here in 2017, and he came back last year and led 174 laps while making a return trip to victory lane. After back-to-back dominating performances here, Truex has to be considered the favorite to complete a Kentucky three-peat this weekend.
Kyle Busch (5/1)
Busch has been the model of consistency at Kentucky. His 5.0 average finish at the track is the best mark in the series, and in the eight races here, he has piled up six top-five finishes and a couple of wins. Busch has also led the most laps of any driver at Kentucky, and he has led more than 100 laps four different times. He already has a series-best four wins under his belt in 2019, and win No. 5 could be on tap Saturday night.
Brad Keselowski (8/1)
There have been six races at 1.5-mile tracks so far this season, and Keselowski is the only driver who has multiple wins. He also leads all drivers with four top-five finishes in those six events. His three wins at Kentucky are the most in the series, and he has led more than 60 laps in five of his eight starts here, leading the second-most laps of any driver overall. Don’t sleep on Keselowski at 8/1 this weekend.
Big Names to Avoid
Kevin Harvick (5/1)
I know that he has scored the most points of any driver in the six races at 1.5-mile ovals this year, and I know that he has led by far the most laps of any driver in those races. I also know that he hasn’t been able to seal the deal and win a race all year and that he has managed just a single top-five finish in eight career starts at Kentucky. I just can’t bet on Harvick at 5/1 when multiple drivers with multiple Kentucky wins are available at similar or better odds.
Kyle Larson (12/1)
Larson is coming off a second-place finish at Chicagoland the last time the series visited a 1.5-mile track, and I think these odds are an overreaction to that performance. The problem is that Larson was also the runner-up at Chicagoland in 2018. He just runs well there. Meanwhile, he has never won a points race at a 1.5-mile oval in his career, and he has a 17.7 average finish in the six races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year. At 12/1, I’ll pass.
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2019 Quaker State 400 Odds at Kentucky Speedway
Brad Keselowski #2 +400
Kyle Busch #18 +400
Kevin Harvick #4 +550
Martin Truex, Jr. #19 +575
Joey Logano #22 +900
Kyle Larson #42 +1000
Alex Bowman #88 +1200
Denny Hamlin #11 +1200
Chase Elliott #9 +1500
Daniel Suarez #41 +1500
Kurt Busch #1 +1500
Ryan Blaney #12 +1500
Aric Almirola #10 +2000
Jimmie Johnson #48 +2000
Clint Bowyer #14 +2500
Erik Jones #20 +2600
William Byron #24 +2700
Austin Dillon #3 +7000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +9000
Daniel Hemric #8 +10000
Ryan Newman #6 +17500
Paul Menard #21 +22500
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +27500
Chris Buescher #37 +30000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +30000
Ty Dillon #13 +35000
Michael McDowell #34 +45000
David Ragan #38 +55000
Ryan Preece #47 +55000
Ross Chastain #15 +275000
Corey LaJoie #32 +300000
Landon Cassill #00 +300000
Matt Tifft #36 +300000
BJ McLeod #53 +400000
Bayley Currey #52 +500000
Quin Houff #77 +500000
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