2019 Pocono 400 Picks & Betting Predictions – Value Bets & Sleepers at Pocono Raceway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at Pocono Raceway this weekend for Sunday’s Pocono 400, and while plenty of the big names in the sport have conquered “The Tricky Triangle” over the years, the track has also seen its share of surprise winners.
Thanks in large part to its massive, 2.5-mile layout and unique triangular shape, pit strategy often trumps speed at Pocono. It is so difficult here that crew chiefs won’t hesitate to try to stretch fuel or gamble on different tire strategies to try to steal track position and potentially the win.
Needless to say, Pocono is a track where I like to take a few chances on some drivers getting longer odds, especially the middle-tier drivers who normally run around the top 10 each week. This is a track where they can turn solid speed into a huge victory.
Check out my top value bets and favorite longshots for Sunday’s Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway. Also, check out the 2019 Pocono 400 odds including favorites and bad bets.
2019 Pocono 400 Picks & Betting Predictions: Value Bets & Sleepers at Pocono Raceway
Value Bets
Ryan Blaney (20/1)
No driver has led more laps in 2019 without winning a race than Blaney. He’s due for a win, and Pocono just might be the spot he gets it done. His first career Cup Series win came here back in 2017, and in six starts, he has five finishes of 12th or better. Blaney has been at his best in the June race, finishing inside the top 10 in all three of his starts and leading double-digit laps in two of them. These are great odds on a driver who is heading to one of his best tracks and who has shown top-five speed all year.
Kurt Busch (20/1)
As far as the numbers go, Busch just might be the best value on the board this weekend. He knows how to navigate “The Tricky Triangle” as well as anyone who has ever jumped behind the wheel. Busch is a three-time winner at Pocono, and he has finished second on five other occasions. With six top-10s in the last 10 races here, he isn’t slowing down either. He could be an absolute steal.
Erik Jones (25/1)
Between loose wheels, cut tire and being in the wrong place at the wrong time, Jones has endured horrible luck in 2019. On the flip side, he has shown top-five speed when he has been able to avoid trouble. He also happens to have excellent numbers at Pocono. He has three top-10s in four starts here, notching a pair of top-five finishes. Jones has also led laps in three of his four Pocono starts, leading double-digit laps twice. With those type of numbers and 25/1 odds, I’m willing to gamble that his luck turns around Sunday.
Daniel Suarez (40/1)
Suarez has shown much better speed on average in 2019 after making the move to Stewart-Haas Racing. Now, he gets to return to the track where he nearly won his first Cup race. Suarez went toe-to-toe with Kyle Busch at Pocono last July, ultimately settling for second after leading 29 laps. He now has two top-10s and three top-15s in four starts here, and he’s already shown he can be a major player for the win. I love him as a 40/1 value bet.
Sleeper Special
Ryan Newman (100/1)
Pocono is all about track position, and no driver in NASCAR today is better at holding track position and tougher to pass than Newman. In fact, it’s not even close. His fight-for-every-inch style has led to a successful career at Pocono, and in 34 starts here, the veteran has amassed 26 top-15s, including seven top-15s in the last 10 races alone. No, he is not going to go out and win this race on raw speed, but as I’ve already mentioned, pit strategy can win this race. Newman is a safe bet to at least be close enough to the front to swing for the fences with a strategy call, and if he can get out front in the closing laps, someone will have to wreck him if they want to pass him. At 100/1, he’s easily the top longshot on the board this weekend.
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