2019 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions – Las Vegas Motor Speedway Value Bets: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and for the sanctioning body and its fans, Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 might be the most anticipated race in over a decade.
NASCAR will be unveiling all elements of its 2019 rules package this weekend, adding aero ducts to the taller spoiler and 550-horsepower engine limit that was used last weekend at Atlanta. The expectation is that drivers will be able to hold it wide open for 10-plus laps, allowing the draft to come into play and potentially create tighter racing and more passing.
It remains to be seen what will actually happen, but the uncertainty is also an opportunity. While the top drivers for the top teams are likely to figure out how to exploit the new package sooner rather than later, there could be some surprises in store Sunday and for the first few weeks.
I recommend taking a chance on a few longshots this weekend because the likelihood of a surprise winner at a 1.5-mile track like Las Vegas has never been higher. Check out my favorite value bets and sleepers on Sunday’s 2019 Pennzoil 400 odds.
2019 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Value Bets
Chase Elliott (+2000)
With three finishes outside the top 30 in four starts at Las Vegas, it is easy to see why Elliott’s odds are a little longer than usual this weekend. However, he finished third in his other start here, and he could have picked up top-five finishes in both races last year had he not been collateral damage in wrecks. It has been bad luck and not bad cars that have led to his poor results at Vegas, so I don’t mind taking a chance on a top five-caliber driver at +2000.
Daniel Suarez (+5000)
Although it is still early in the year, it looks like the move to Stewart-Haas Racing could be just what the doctor ordered for Suarez. He ran inside the top 15 for most of the race at Atlanta, eventually coming away with a top-10 finish. Perhaps more importantly, all the SHR cars ran in the top 10, so it doesn’t appear the organization has slipped any from last year when all four teams won a race. In terms of the quality of the car, you will have a tough time find better odds.
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Paul Menard (+8000)
With just one Cup win in a career that spans more than a decade, I understand why Menard has such long odds this weekend. That being said, his numbers saw a significant jump last year when he joined Wood Brothers Racing, and Las Vegas has always been one of his best tracks. Menard has an 11.4 average finish over the last 10 races here, and he cracked the top 10 in both races here last year. These are enticing odds for a guy who will likely be within sniffing distance of the lead Sunday.
2019 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sleeper Specials
Daniel Hemric (+10000)
While you don’t want to overreact after just a couple of races, how can you not be impressed by Hemric’s performance last weekend. He started way back in 28th, but he worked his way up into the top five before cutting a tire in the final 20 laps. After the rookie put together such a strong run at one of the toughest tracks on the schedule, I think we have to rethink his ceiling. I don’t think his odds have caught up with his potential just yet, so try to take advantage while you can.
Chris Buescher (+30000)
As I’ve already mentioned, the unknowns that come with the new rules package makes this one of the best races in recent memory to gamble on longshots, and Buescher is a serious longshot with a decent resume at Vegas. He is coming off a top-10 run at Atlanta last weekend, and he finished in the top 15 in both races here a year ago.
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