2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Odds & Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers at Texas Motor Speedway: After taking a week off, the NASCAR XFINITY Series returns to action this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 will be the second race of the year at Texas, and it will also be the second race of the Round of 8 of the playoffs and ninth race of 2019 at a mile-and-a-half oval.
All season, the “Big 3” of Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick have been dominating the series, and their dominance has been on full display at the 1.5-mile tracks. When making your bets this weekend, you will want to focus a majority of your money on this trio in order to maximize your chances of cashing.
There are a few potential value bets that have also caught my eye, but I don’t recommend breaking the bank on any sleepers or longshots this weekend. The top drivers in the series are going to be tough to slow down in Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 at Texas.
2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Odds & Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers at Texas Motor Speedway
The Favorites
Christopher Bell
His checkers-or-wreckers style can lead to some wrecks, but as his series-best seven wins suggest, Bell will get you paid. He has shown plenty of muscle at the mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019, leading a series-high 600 laps in the eight races. Bell has actually led laps in seven of those eight races, leading 60-plus laps five times and more than 100 laps three times. He led a race-high 127 laps and finished third at Texas in the spring, and he is going to show up with a car capable of winning again this weekend.
Cole Custer
Custer is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he has finished in the top five in four of his five career starts at Texas. He has also been one of the best at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, scoring the second-most points and leading the second-most laps in the eight races. Perhaps more importantly, he seems to keep getting better. Custer has won two of the last four races at mile-and-a-half ovals, leading more than 80 laps in three of those starts.
Tyler Reddick
If you want to a bet on a driver who is basically guaranteed to be near the front Saturday, Reddick is your man. He leads all drivers with six top-five finishes and a 4.6 average finish in the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2019. Reddick has won two of those eight races, and he has finished third or better five times. He led 19 laps in a runner-up effort at Texas back in March, and he led 54 laps in a runner-up effort in the fall race here last season.
Value Bets
Chase Briscoe
Briscoe had a strong run at Texas in the spring, finishing fourth behind Cup star Kyle Busch and championship frontrunners Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell. More importantly, he has been coming on strong at the 1.5-mile ovals down the stretch. Briscoe has led laps in the last three races at mile-and-a-half tracks, and he appeared to have a great shot to win the most recent race at Kansas before a lap car took him out while he was leading. Briscoe is poised to break through.
Brandon Jones
The last time the XFINITY Series visited a 1.5-mile track, Jones ended up celebrating in victory lane. Granted, he did benefit from some wild moments, but he was battling in the top five throughout the race. Jones actually has four top-five finishes in the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and he has led double-digit laps in three of those starts. Consistency remains an issue, but Jones is one of the few drivers who has shown the speed needed to challenge the “Big 3” at tracks like Texas.
Sleeper Special
Jeb Burton
The part-time driver will make his sixth XFINITY starts of the year for JR Motorsports this weekend, and Burton has cracked the top 10 in four of his previous five races. He has finished seventh or better in both of his starts at 1.5-mile tracks this year, notching a fifth-place finish at Texas in March. After the top-five effort in the spring, Burton could be ready to pull off an upset this weekend.
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2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Odds
Christopher Bell +160
Tyler Reddick +175
Cole Custer +250
Chase Briscoe +1400
Justin Allgaier +1400
Harrison Burton +2200
Austin Cindric +2500
Brandon Jones +2500
Field +2800
Ross Chastain +3000
Noah Gragson +3500
Jeb Burton +6600
Michael Annett +6600
Justin Haley +8000
John Hunter Nemecheck +8800
Ryan Sieg +17500