2019 Monster Energy Open Picks & Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers

2019 Monster Energy Open Odds & Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers: The 35th running of the Monster Energy NASCAR All-Star Race is on tap this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but before Saturday night’s main event can take place, we have to set the field. There are currently 15 drivers locked into the All-Star Race, but four more will be added. Three of the spots will be filled via the Monster Energy Open, a 50-lap shootout divided into three stages with a guaranteed spot in the All-Star Race awarded for each stage winner.

If you thought drivers battling for a $1 million, winner-take-all purse produced some intense racing, you can imagine what the drivers fighting for a chance just to have a shot at that top prize will do. In fact, the Open has produced some of the best moments of All-Star weekend over the years.

There are a couple of established names in the Open field this year, but there are also several of up-and-coming drivers who could be poised to make some noise. Take a closer look at my frontrunners and favorite sleepers in Saturday night’s Monster Energy Open.

2019 Monster Energy Open Picks & Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers

The Favorites

 
The fact that he is even competing in the Open is a testament to just how bad his luck has been recently, but Kyle Larson is easily the best driver in this field. The guy is a perennial championship threat, and the last time he was in the Open, he won one of the stages in 2016 to transfer to the All-Star Race. Heck, he’s almost won the All-Star Race itself. Larson has led laps in all three of his appearances in the All-Star Race, leading 40 laps and finishing second in the 2017 race. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t win one of the three stages in the Open and advance on into the main event.

If you don’t believe in momentum in a sport like NASCAR, you need to take a long look at what Alex Bowman has been doing in recent weeks. He spent most of the year toiling in and around the Top 15, then he picked up a second-place finish in a wild race at Talladega. He has since followed up that runner-up effort with runner-up finishes at Dover and Kansas. Bowman is officially in the middle of the best stretch of his career as he heads to the Open, and by the way, he won Stage 1 of the Open last year to transfer to the All-Star Race. I’m expecting a repeat performance this weekend, and I fully expect to see Bowman back in the main event Saturday night.

Moving to Stewart-Haas Racing has Daniel Suarez off to his best start at the Cup level, and I don’t see him slowing down this weekend. This will be the third time he has competed in the Open, and in each of his first two starts, he was able to pick up a stage win and advance into the All-Star Race. Last year, he was also able to finish second in the All-Star Race itself after transferring in. Suarez has been a consistent top-10 threat at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, posting an 11.0 average finish through the first four races. Considering he’s already had a bunch of success during All-Star weekend, I like his chances of making a return trip to the main event.

The Contenders

 
I think the three drivers I already mentioned have an edge on the rest of the field, but one driver who could rock the boat a bit is William Byron. He is still trying to find some overall consistency, but he has been much better at the 1.5-mile tracks this year than he was as a rookie. In fact, he’s shown good short-run speed, and he has led laps in three of the four races at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2019, leading 15-plus laps at Las Vegas and Texas. The Open is divided into three short segments, which could play to Byron’s strengths.

If there is one thing I know for sure this weekend, it’s that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won’t be shy about doing whatever it takes to try to make the All-Star Race. He’s aggressive and unapologetic, and that is not a bad attitude to have heading into the shootout-style format of the Open. Plus, Stenhouse has been solid at mile-and-a-half tracks this year, posting a 12.8 average finish in four starts and leading laps in three of those races. Stenhouse has a puncher’s chance to grab a stage win and advance, and I sort of mean that in the literal sense.

Sleeper Special

 
One of the biggest surprises so far in 2019 has been the performance of Chris Buescher at the 1.5-mile ovals. Normally someone who struggles to crack the top 10 at these tracks, he currently owns a 14.2 average finish in four starts, logging top-10s at both Atlanta and Kansas. The smaller, weaker field of the Open should definitely benefit Buescher. A little bad luck for one of the favorites or a lucky break on his part could be all he needs to score a surprise stage win and grab a spot in the All-Star Race.

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