2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds & Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers at Kansas Speedway: On the heels of an off weekend, the NASCAR XFINITY Series comes returns to action at Kansas Speedway for the start of the second round of the playoffs. While Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 is the first trip of the year to the track, it is the eighth race of the year at a mile-and-a-half oval.
More than any type of track on the schedule, the 1.5-mile ovals seem to favor the top drivers from the top teams. This year in particular, that means the “Big 3” of Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. The trio has combined to win five of the seven races at mile-and-a-half tracks, and the other two were won by Cup Series star Kyle Busch.
The same three drivers have also led a majority of the laps in these races. All three have led more than 200 laps in those seven races, and no other series regular has led more than 35. There are a few decent value bets I like this weekend, but for the most part, you should invest heavily in the “Big 3” when placing your bets for Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300.
2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds & Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers at Kansas Speedway
The Favorites
Christopher Bell
Bell won at Kansas in his track debut in 2017, and he has been a force at the mile-and-a-half tracks all year. He has four finishes of third or better in the seven races, including a win at Atlanta, and he has led more laps than any other driver in those events. More importantly, he has been consistently dominant, leading 30-plus laps in five of the seven races and more than 100 laps three times. Tied for the series lead with seven victories in 2019, you’d be crazy not to put some money on Bell this weekend.
Tyler Reddick
No driver has been as consistent at the 1.5-mile tracks this year as Reddick. His six top-10s in the seven races are tied for the most in the series, and he leads all drivers with five top-five finishes and a 5.0 average finish. Reddick ranks third in laps led at the mile-and-a-half ovals, and he has picked up a pair of wins. He has also led laps and finished in the top five in both of his previous starts at Kansas. Reddick is basically a lock to be battling for the win Saturday.
Cole Custer
Although he has had nothing but bad luck at Kansas in three previous starts, Custer has been too good at the 1.5-mile ovals this year to ignore. Two of his series-best seven wins this season have come at mile-and-a-half tracks, and he has led the second-most laps in those seven races. Custer has actually led laps in five of those seven starts, and he has led more than 20 laps in three of the last four. He has as much upside as any driver in the field. Don’t be afraid to bet aggressively.
Value Bets
Justin Allgaier
Momentum can mean a lot in NASCAR, and after being plagued by bad luck for most of the year, it all seems to be coming together for Allgaier down the stretch. He heads into Kansas riding a streak of five straight top-five finishes, and the last time the series visited a 1.5-mile track, he led 15 laps and finished fifth at Las Vegas. Yes, Allgaier is still winless in 2019, but he is only one year removed from a five-win campaign. He appears to be close to a breakout performance, and you may want to bet on the breakthrough happening this weekend.
Ross Chastain
Chastain has bounced between a few rides in his XFINITY starts, but he always seems to hold his own at the 1.5-mile tracks, and he will have great equipment to work with this weekend when he drives a second entry for Kaulig Racing. Chastain has finished 16th or better in all five of his starts at mile-and-a-half ovals, compiling an 11.2 average finish. In his only start at a 1.5-mile track for Kaulig Racing, he picked up a top-10 finish at Chicagoland. Chastain also scored a win at Daytona for the team back in July. He has the talent to contend for wins, and he will have the equipment to match his skill at Kansas. Chastain could be a sleeping giant and a great value bet.
Sleeper Special
John Hunter Nemechek
Nemechek has been a steady performer at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, posting a 10.6 average finish in the seven races. Granted, he has only finished better than eighth in one of those starts, but in his only other start at Kansas, he led 64 laps and went to victory lane last fall. Yes, the win came while he was driving for the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 team, and while his current team isn’t as strong, Nemechek clearly has a good feel for Kansas. He’s worth a flier if you are hunting for a big payout.
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2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds
CHRISTOPHER BELL +135
TYLER REDDICK +275
COLE CUSTER +330
JUSTIN ALLGAIER +1540
CHASE BRISCOE +1760
AUSTIN CINDRIC +4400
NOAH GRAGSON +4400
BRANDON JONES +6600
HARRISON BURTON +6600
RYAN TRUEX +11000
MICHAEL ANNETT +11000
ROSS CHASTAIN +11000
JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK +22000
JUSTIN HALEY +22000
RYAN SIEG +55000