2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Kansas Speedway: The second round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs comes to a close this weekend at Kansas Speedway, and after Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, only eight drivers will still be in the mix for the championship.
The race will be the second visit to Kansas in 2019, and it will also be the ninth race of the year at a mile-and-a-half oval. These high-speed, “cookie-cutter” tracks have always been kind to the top drivers from the top teams, and this year has been no exception.
There have been eight races at 1.5-mile tracks so far this season, and all eight were won by drivers who qualified for playoffs. With the exception of Kurt Busch, the other winners of those races are still alive in the playoffs.
You can still put down some bets on some drivers getting longer odds this weekend, but I would at least make sure that those drivers have the backing of a powerhouse team. I’d also recommend making sure that a majority of your bets go to the favorites. You just don’t see a lot of upsets at 1.5-mile tracks like Kansas.
2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Kansas Speedway
Favorites to Bet
Martin Truex Jr. (9/2)
Truex is no stranger to running well at Kansas. He has cracked the top five in four of his last five starts here, and he swept both races at the track in 2017. He has also been stout at the mile-and-a-half ovals this year, scoring the third-most points in the eight races. Truex is also one of just two drivers with multiple wins at the 1.5-mile ovals this year, winning the most recent of those races at Las Vegas a few weeks ago. Throw in the fact that he owns a series-best six wins in 2019, and you have to feel confident backing Truex this weekend.
Kevin Harvick (9/2)
No driver has scored more points or led more laps in the eight races at mile-and-a-half ovals this year than Harvick, and he led a race-high 104 laps at Kansas in May before debris on the grill forced him to relinquish the lead. He is no stranger to running up front at Kansas, posting a 6.5 average finish in 11 starts at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick has six finishes of third or better in those starts, and he has led double-digit laps 10 times, leading 70-plus laps in three straight races.
Chase Elliott (6/1)
He enters Sunday’s race in a must-win situation if he wants to advance in the playoffs, but the good news for Elliott is that he is the defending winner of the race. He has actually cracked the top five in three of his last four starts at Kansas, leading 45 laps and finishing fourth in the May race here earlier this year.
Brad Keselowski (8/1)
Keselowski is going for a season sweep at Kansas after picking up the win in the May race, and no driver has shown more upside at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He is one of just two drivers with multiple wins at the mile-and-a-half ovals this year, and Keselowski leads all drivers with five top-five finishes in those eight races. The fact that he offers the most room for profit among the favorites is an added bonus.
Big Name to Avoid
Kyle Busch (5/1)
Busch hasn’t been bad at the 1.5-mile tracks this year by any means, but he hasn’t exactly been dominant either. In fact, he hasn’t won a race at a mile-and-a-half oval yet this season. He does have three finishes of third or better, including a runner-up effort at Kentucky, but Busch has finished 19th or worse in three of the last five races and has failed to lead a lap in two of the last three. He hasn’t won at any track since Pocono back at the beginning of June, and I have a hard time putting my money behind Busch at 5/1 when other big names getting longer odds have been outperforming him recently.
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2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
Kyle Busch #18 +375
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +450
Kevin Harvick #4 +475
Brad Keselowski #2 +600
Joey Logano #22 +1000
Denny Hamlin #11 +1100
Ryan Blaney #12 +1100
Chase Elliott #9 +1200
Kyle Larson #42 +1200
Alex Bowman #88 +2000
Kurt Busch #1 +2000
Erik Jones #20 +2200
Clint Bowyer #14 +2800
Daniel Hemric #8 +3500
Jimmie Johnson #48 +3500
William Byron #24 +3500
Daniel Suarez #41 +4400
Aric Almirola #10 +7700
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +8800
Austin Dillon #3 +10000
Ryan Newman #6 +10000
Paul Menard #21 +12500
Chris Buescher #37 +20000
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +20000
David Ragan #38 +40000
Ty Dillon #13 +50000
Ryan Preece #47 +75000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +100000
Michael McDowell #34 +100000
Corey LaJoie #32 +400000
JJ Yeley #51 +400000
Landon Cassill #00 +400000
Matt Tifft #36 +400000
Reed Sorenson #27 +400000
Ross Chastain #15 +400000
Austin Theriault #52 +500000
Joey Gase #66 +500000
Josh Bilicki #53 +500000
Parker Kligerman #96 +500000
Timmy Hill #77 +500000