2019 GEICO 500 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Talladega Superspeedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, and the massive oval holds the title of largest track on the schedule. Unfortunately, it is also known for being one of the most unpredictable tracks on the schedule, and the pack racing at Talladega always seems to produce plenty of wrecked racecars and an exciting finish.
Of course, tough to predict and winning money betting on Sunday’s GEICO 500 don’t exactly go hand in hand, but while the gap between the favorites and the field won’t be as big this weekend, there are still a few drivers who stand out from the pack at the superspeedways.
Yes, I will make my share of sleeper bets for the race, but there are some solid odds among the favorites, as well. With that in mind, check out a closer look at my favorite frontrunners to bet on for Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega, along with a couple of betting favorites I recommend staying away from.
2019 GEICO 500 Odds & Predictions: Talladega Superspeedway
Favorites to Bet
Joey Logano (8/1)
He’s the current king of the superspeedways and your best bet if you like backing the overall favorite. Over the last 10 superspeedway races, Logano leads all drivers with six top-five finishes and seven top-10s, and his 214 laps led in that stretch are the second most. Three of his four superspeedway wins have come at Talladega, and Logano has led double-digit laps in five of his last seven starts here.
Brad Keselowski (8/1)
Keselowski leads all active drivers with six career wins at the superspeedways, and five of those victories have come at Talladega. Even when he crashes out, he typically has a car capable of winning. In fact, Keselowski had led laps in each of the last six races at Talladega, leading 20-plus laps five times in that stretch.
Denny Hamlin (10/1)
He added to his superspeedway resume with a win in the Daytona 500 back in February, and over the last 10 superspeedway races, Hamlin has seven top-15s and has finished sixth or better five times. He has also led double-digit laps in six of those 10 races. Hamlin always seems to find his way to the front.
Ryan Blaney (14/1)
Blaney has crashed out of a lot of his superspeedway starts, but he sure does show a lot of muscle when he is on the track. In fact, he has led the most laps of any driver at the superspeedways since the start of 2017, leading laps in six of the nine races in that stretch. He will have a car capable of winning Sunday.
Aric Almirola (14/1)
He won at Talladega last fall, and over the last 10 superspeedway races, Almirola leads all drivers with an 11.0 average finish. During that same stretch, he has finished eighth or better in all five of his starts at Talladega, cracking the top five three times. These are solid odds for the driver who gives you one of the best shots to be in the mix for the win.
Big Name to Avoid
Clint Bowyer (10/1)
I know Bowyer owns a couple of wins at Talladega, but it is crazy that he is on the same level as guys like Logano, Keselowski and Hamlin this weekend. He has a 19.1 average finish over the last 10 superspeedway races, and he has crashed out of five of those while managing just two top-10s. Bowyer just isn’t the consistent force as the other drivers getting the same odds. Spend your money elsewhere.
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GEICO 500 – Odds To Win @ Talladega Superspeedway
Brad Keselowski #2 +750
Joey Logano #22 +750
Kyle Busch #18 +750
Denny Hamlin #11 +1000
Kevin Harvick #4 +1000
Clint Bowyer #14 +1200
Aric Almirola #10 +1300
Chase Elliott #9 +1300
Ryan Blaney #12 +1300
Jimmie Johnson #48 +1500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +1500
Kurt Busch #1 +1700
Paul Menard #21 +1700
Martin Truex, Jr. #19 +1900
Erik Jones #20 +2300
Daniel Suarez #41 +2400
Austin Dillon #3 +2800
Alex Bowman #88 +2900
Kyle Larson #42 +3300
Ryan Newman #6 +3300
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +4400
William Byron #24 +5500
Chris Buescher #37 +6600
Daniel Hemric #8 +7700
Ty Dillon #13 +7700
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +8800
Michael McDowell #34 +8800
Ryan Preece #47 +8800
David Ragan #38 +10000
Brendan Gaughan #62 +12500
Corey LaJoie #32 +15000
Jeffrey Earnhardt #81 +15000
Justin Haley #77 +15000
Landon Cassill #00 +15000
Matt Tifft #36 +15000
Cody Ware #51 +20000
Parker Kligerman #96 +20000
Reed Sorenson #27 +20000
Ross Chastain #15 +20000
Stanton Barrett #51 +20000
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