2019 Gander RV 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Pocono Raceway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Pocono Raceway this weekend for the second trip to “The Tricky Triangle” in just over a month. The track will host Sunday’s Gander RV 400, and while pit strategy and track position always play a big role as drivers try to figure out Pocono’s three different corner layouts, it always seems to be the same drivers battling it out for the win.
Yes, there have been a couple of upsets at Pocono over the years, but for the most part, the surprises have come in the back half of the top 10 and in the top 15. Up front, it has been the same big names who have consistently figured out this triangular-shaped puzzle. I will have no problem backing the favorites in a big way in Sunday’s Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway.
2019 Gander RV 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Pocono Raceway
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (5/2)
Busch has simply been on another level at Pocono recently. Not only is he the defending winner of the July race here, but he is going for a season sweep at the track following his win back in June. He has actually won three of the last four races at Pocono, finishing third or better in four straight starts and leading double-digit laps in five straight. In fact, Busch has led more than 50 laps in four of the last five Pocono races, topping 70 laps led three times. I’d put most of my money on the No. 18 this weekend.
Brad Keselowski (5/1)
He always seems to be in the mix for the win at Pocono, and Keselowski has piled up seven top-five finishes in the last eight races here, and he has led laps in six straight starts at the track. He was the runner-up in the June race earlier this year, giving him four second-place finishes to go along with a win at Pocono for his career. If you are fading Kyle Busch, Keselowski should be high on your list of alternatives.
Kevin Harvick (5/1)
Harvick held the lead going into the final stretch of the June race at Pocono earlier this year, but an uncontrolled tire penalty on his last stop cost him any chance at the win. Even after that debacle, he still leads all drivers with eight top-10s in the last 10 races at Pocono, and his seven top-five finishes in that stretch are tied for the most in the series. Harvick has led laps in seven of those 10 races, combining to lead a series-best 119 laps in the two races here a year ago. You can count on him being in the mix for the win.
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
His consistency hasn’t been on par with the other three frontrunners, but Truex’s upside certainly is. In fact, he and odds-on-favorite Kyle Busch are the only two drivers with multiple wins in the last 10 races at Pocono. During that same stretch, his 186 laps led are the second most in the series, and Truex has led 30-plus laps in two of the last four races here.
Big Name to Avoid
Denny Hamlin (10/1)
Yes, Hamlin leads all active drivers with four wins at Pocono, but his last win at the track came way back in 2010. Not only has he not won here in nearly a decade, but Hamlin has managed just a single top-five finish in his last 10 Pocono starts, and he has led double-digit laps just once in the last 14 races here. His overall numbers still stack up well, but the fact is that Hamlin just isn’t the same driver who dominated Pocono early in his career. Either bet on one of the four favorites or take a shot at someone getting longer odds.
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2019 Gander RV 400 Odds @ Pocono Raceway
Kyle Busch +275
Martin Truex Jr. +450
Brad Keselowski +600
Kevin Harvick +600
Denny Hamlin +1000
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
Ryan Blaney +2000
Kyle Larson +2000
Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Clint Bowyer +2500
Aric Almirola +4000
Daniel Suarez +5000
Jimmie Johnson +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
William Byron +5000
Ryan Newman +12500
Austin Dillon +15000
Rickey Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Paul Menard +25000
Chris Buescher +25000
Matt Dibenedetto +25000
Daniel Hemric +25000
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