2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets at Homestead-Miami Speedway: The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season comes to a close this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The progressively-banked, mike-and-a-half oval will host Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and four drivers are set to battle for the championship in the season finale.
Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are this year’s Championship 4, and if you plan on betting on the winner of Sunday’s race, you will want to focus a bulk of your wagers on these four title contenders. Since NASCAR introduced the current playoff format, all five finales at Homestead have been won by the eventual champion. Last year, the Championship 4 finished first through fourth.
2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets at Homestead-Miami Speedway
The Favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (11/4)
Truex has been one of the best in the series at mile-and-a-half tracks this season, picking up a pair of wins and posting a series-best 8.3 average finish. He has also turned in back-to-back stellar starts at Homestead. He led 78 laps in a win here in 2017, and he led 20 more laps last season on his way to a runner-up finish. Throw in the fact that Truex owns a series-high seven wins in 2019, and you have to like his chances of closing out the year with another victory and his second career title.
Kyle Busch (11/4)
Although he hasn’t won a race since Pocono in June, overlooking Busch this weekend would be a huge mistake. For one, he is still tied for the series lead with seven top-10s at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and he is tied for the second most laps led in those races. Busch has also finished sixth or better in four straight starts at Homestead, winning the 2015 race and leading 20-plus laps three times in that stretch.
Kevin Harvick (3/1)
The mile-and-a-half tracks have been kind to Harvick all season, and the 10 races, he leads all drivers in points scored and laps led. The consistent speed has been particularly impressive, and he has led 40-plus laps in six of those 10 races, leading 100-plus laps three times. Harvick has also been outstanding at Homestead. He has cracked the top 10 in his last 11 starts here, finishing fourth or better in all five starts for his current Stewart-Haas Racing team. Harvick has also led 40-plus laps in four of his five Homestead starts for SHR.
Denny Hamlin (3/1)
He hasn’t been quite as consistent as the other three title contenders at Homestead, but Hamlin does have just as much upside. After all, he is a two-time winner here, and he has led more than 40 laps in three of his last 10 starts at the track, leading 41 laps in last year’s race. Hamlin has also been the best driver in the series in the second half of the year, and two of his six wins in 2019 have come at mile-and-a-half tracks, including a dominating victory at Kansas earlier in the playoffs.
Bad Bets
Kyle Larson (8/1)
Larson is actually excellent at Homestead, logging three top-five finishes in his last four starts and posting an 8.5 average finish in six starts overall. He’s even led laps in five of those six races, leading at least 45 laps in three straight starts and leading more than 130 laps in both 2016 and 2017. However, history favors the Championship 4 this weekend, and Larson isn’t part of that group. More importantly, the gap between the four title contenders and every other driver outside of Larson is substantial. After Larson at 8/1, you have Joey Logano, last year’s Homestead winner, at 25/1. If I am going to bet that a title contender will fail to win the finale for the first time ever, I want a little more room for profit than 8/1.
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2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds
MARTIN TRUEX JR +300
KYLE BUSCH +300
KEVIN HARVICK +330
DENNY HAMLIN +330
KYLE LARSON +760
JOEY LOGANO +2750
BRAD KESELOWSKI +3300
CHASE ELLIOTT +5200
RYAN BLANEY +5750
ALEX BOWMAN +6600
ERIK JONES +6600
KURT BUSCH +6600
WILLIAM BYRON +8800
CLINT BOWYER +10500
ARIC ALMIROLA +17500
DANIEL SUAREZ +18000
JIMMIE JOHNSON +19000
RYAN NEWMAN +55000
RICKY STENHOUSE JR +55000
AUSTIN DILLON +55000
PAUL MENARD +110000
MATT DIBENEDETTO +110000
CHRIS BUESCHER +110000
DANIEL HEMRIC +550000
RYAN PREECE +550000
TY DILLON +550000
DARRELL WALLACE JR +550000
MICHAEL MCDOWELL +550000
DAVID RAGAN +550000