2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets at Atlanta Motor Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will make its lone stop at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The fast, 1.5-mile oval boasts one of the roughest surfaces on the schedule, and tire wear also seems to be a factor.
In years past, Atlanta would be a track where a bet heavily on the big names, but thanks to NASCAR’s new, reduced-horsepower package being debuted this weekend, there could be an opportunity to make a little money with a dark horse bet.
Nobody knows exactly what to expect from this new package. My guess it will fall somewhere in between the chaos of the restrictor-plate races at Daytona at Talladega and the racing we have seen at the 1.5-mile tracks recently where one or two drivers have the competition covered. Either way, there is some uncertainty, which could mean a surprise winner in Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.
2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Predictions
Value Bets
Kurt Busch (20/1)
I’ll start with my favorite value play on the board this weekend. Busch is a three-time winner at Atlanta, and few have been as consistent on the track’s worn out surface. He has reeled off nine straight top-15 finishes here, including three straight top-10s, and his 6.7 average finish during that stretch is the best in the series. Busch has also led more than 20 laps in three of the last four races at Atlanta, so he still knows his way to the front. This is a perfect track for a veteran like Busch to score a surprise win.
Erik Jones (20/1)
Although Jones has yet to win a race at a mile-and-a-half oval, he took a big step in that direction last season. He finished 11th or better in eight of the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, finishing in the top five in two of the last three races. Driving for a powerhouse team like Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones should continue to upward trend in his third season. He should be able to contend for multiple wins, starting Sunday at Atlanta.
Jimmie Johnson (25/1)
Johnson is coming off the worst season of his career, and while he struggled at Atlanta the past two seasons, he did pick up back-to-back wins at the track in 2015 and 2016 to give him five career victories here. He was also fast in preseason testing at Las Vegas with the new rules package NASCAR is using in 2019, and Atlanta shares a similar 1.5-mile layout with Vegas. There are enough reasons for optimism to roll the dice on Johnson at 25/1.
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Daniel Suarez (60/1)
He has never really been in the mix for a win at a mile-and-a-half track like Atlanta, but that could change thanks to his move to Stewart-Haas Racing this offseason. His three teammates are all listed among the top-10 betting favorites for Sunday’s race, and last year, SHR put all four of its cars in the Top 15 at Atlanta, including three in the top-eight spots. Suarez is still unproven at the Cup level, but at 60/1, I’d take a chance on almost any driver in this caliber of equipment.
Sleeper Special
Alex Bowman (80/1)
While I wouldn’t consider him a favorite by any means, I was shocked to see Bowman getting such long odds to win. After all, he made the playoffs in his first full season for Hendrick Motorsports, picking up three top-10 finishes at mile-and-a-half tracks. He should only get better with another year of experience, but he’s getting the same odds to win as veterans in mediocre equipment who run around the middle of the pack every week. Bowman could be an absolute steal this weekend.
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2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Odds
2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 – Odds To Win @ Atlanta Motor Speedway
Kevin Harvick +400
Kyle Busch +600
Brad Keselowski +700
Joey Logano +700
Martin Truex Jr. +700
Kyle Larson +900
Chase Elliott +1000
Clint Bowyer +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Aric Almirola +2000
Erik Jones +2000
Kurt Busch +2000
Ryan Blaney +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2200
Alex Bowman +5000
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