2019 First Data 500 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets and Sleepers at Martinsville Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will be back at Martinsville Speedway this weekend, and while all eyes will be on the eight remaining playoff drivers as the Round of 8 begins, there are some potential value bets that deserve your attention for Sunday’s First Data 500.
Martinsville is NASCAR’s shortest and slowest track, and thanks to the tight, flat corners at the paperclip-shaped oval, track position is crucial and bumping and banging to gain positions is the norm. Yes, big names usually still end up in victory lane here, but this type of racing does create the opportunity for drivers to try to steal a win.
If a driver can catch a well-timed caution or a crew chief can make a savvy call on pit road, Martinsville is a track where a driver can hold off faster cars for a bit. It’s all about finding a way to get out front when it counts.
Let’s check out a closer look at some potential value bets and longshots for the First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
2019 First Data 500 Picks & Predictions: Value Bets and Sleepers at Martinsville Speedway
Value Bets
Clint Bowyer (25/1)
While he was bounced from the playoffs last weekend at Kansas, overlooking Bowyer this weekend is a major mistake. He is an excellent short track racer, and he has finished seventh or better in four of his five starts at Martinsville since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. Bowyer has finished third or better in two of those starts, leading 215 laps in a win here in the spring of 2018. He always seems to be near the front here, and since NASCAR introduced stage racing, Bowyer has earned points in eight of the 10 stages. At 25/1, he is my favorite value bet on the board this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson (40/1)
Johnson had a tough afternoon at Martinsville back in the spring, but his overall resume at the track ranks as one of the best in NASCAR history. He is a nine-time winner here, and he has posted an 8.5 average finish while leading 2,862 laps in 35 starts. Johnson has seven top-15s in his last eight Martinsville starts, and since the playoffs began, he has been a staple of the top 10. His recent uptick in performance just in time for a trip to one of his best tracks could be the recipe for an upset.
Kurt Busch (40/1)
At first glance, Busch’s numbers at Martinsville aren’t exactly inspiring. He’s managed just six top-10s in 38 starts here, and he only has three top-five finishes. However, two of those top-five runs were wins, and he finished sixth in the fall race here last season. Overall, Busch has been excellent at short tracks and flat tracks, and Martinsville checks off both boxes. Yes, he is inconsistent at this track, but getting a two-time winner at Martinsville at 40/1 odds isn’t a bad deal.
Sleeper Special
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Ryan Newman (300/1)
I’m not saying Newman shouldn’t be a longshot, but to list him at 300/1 practically demands that you throw a few bucks his way. After all, we are talking about a driver who made the playoffs this year, and he is getting the same odds to win as drivers who can’t crack the Top 25. Plus, Martinsville is exactly the type of track where Newman has been known to steal wins because of his ability to protect track position. In fact, his last five Cup Series win have come at flat tracks, including a win at Martinsville in 2012. Like I said, throw a minimum bet his way and see what happens.
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2019 First Data 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +300
Kyle Busch #18 +350
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +525
Chase Elliott #9 +650
Joey Logano #22 +650
Brad Keselowski #2 +950
Ryan Blaney #12 +1300
Kevin Harvick #4 +1500
Clint Bowyer #14 +1700
Aric Almirola #10 +2200
Erik Jones #20 +3000
William Byron #24 +3000
Jimmie Johnson #48 +3500
Kurt Busch #1 +3500
Kyle Larson #42 +3500
Alex Bowman #88 +5500
Michael McDowell #34 +5500
Daniel Suarez #41 +6600
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +8800
Ryan Newman #6 +17500
Austin Dillon #3 +27500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +27500
Chris Buescher #37 +30000
Paul Menard #21 +30000
Ryan Preece #47 +30000
Daniel Hemric #8 +75000
David Ragan #38 +75000
Ty Dillon #13 +90000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +100000
BJ McLeod #51 +250000
JJ Yeley #53 +300000
Reed Sorenson #27 +300000
Timmy Hill #77 +300000
Austin Theriault #52 +400000
Corey LaJoie #32 +400000
Landon Cassill #00 +400000
Matt Tifft #36 +400000
Ross Chastain #15 +400000