2019 First Data 500 Odds & Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets at Martinsville Speedway: The third round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begins this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, and the final short track of the race could be the most exciting as the eight drivers still eligible for the championship try to pick up a win and guarantee themselves a spot in the Championship 4 at Homestead.
While the intensity level will be high for Sunday’s First Data 500, I still expect a familiar face to be celebrating in victory lane. Of all the short tracks, Martinsville seems to lend itself to dominant stretches from certain drivers. From Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, some of NASCAR’s best always seems to find their way to the front at the half-mile, paperclip-shaped oval.
I won’t hesitate to invest heavily in the big names who have mastered Martinsville when placing my bets for Sunday’s First Data 500.
2019 First Data 500 Odds & Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets at Martinsville Speedway
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (5/2)
He has been in a league of his own in terms of consistency at Martinsville, and Busch has cracked the top five in eight of his last eight starts at the short track. He has picked up a pair of wins during that span, leading more laps than any other driver. Busch has led more than 100 laps in four of those starts, leading more than 180 laps three times. Short tracks can be a little chaotic, but you have to feel comfortable investing heavily in Busch.
Denny Hamlin (9/2)
His impressive 2019 campaign continued with a win last weekend at Kansas, and now Hamlin gets to head to one of his best tracks. He is a five-time Martinsville winner for his career, and he has led laps in 20 of his 27 starts here, leading laps in five of his last six races. Hamlin was the runner-up in the fall race last year, and he picked up a top-five finish in the spring. Throw in the fact that he has been the hottest driver in the second half of the year, and bettors should have plenty of confidence in Hamlin.
Chase Elliott (7/1)
Flat tracks have been among his best, and Martinsville is no exception. Elliott has finished 12th or better in five of his last six starts here, reeling off three straight top-10s. He led 49 laps in a runner-up in the spring race earlier this year, and he led 123 laps in the fall race in 2017 before being dumped from the lead in the closing laps. It’s only a matter of time before Elliott seals the deal at Martinsville, and you might want to be on that happening this weekend.
Brad Keselowski (7/1)
Keselowski might be the best value among the favorites this weekend. The two-time Martinsville winner has eight top-10s and seven top-five finishes in his last nine starts here, and he has led more than 100 laps four times in that stretch. More importantly, he is going for a season sweep after delivering an absolute beatdown on the field in the spring, leading 446 of the 500 laps.
Big Name to Avoid
Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
He has been rock solid at Martinsville, and he actually came within a lap of winning the fall race here a year ago. On the flip side, Truex hasn’t delivered many dominant runs here, and he has never been to victory lane. Even though has four three top-five finishes and four straight top-10s at the track, he has only led a combined 22 laps in that same stretch. Yes, he is more than capable of challenging for the win, but he is getting better or similar odds to drivers who have multiple Martinsville wins. I don’t like the value.
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2019 First Data 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +300
Kyle Busch #18 +350
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +525
Chase Elliott #9 +650
Joey Logano #22 +650
Brad Keselowski #2 +950
Ryan Blaney #12 +1300
Kevin Harvick #4 +1500
Clint Bowyer #14 +1700
Aric Almirola #10 +2200
Erik Jones #20 +3000
William Byron #24 +3000
Jimmie Johnson #48 +3500
Kurt Busch #1 +3500
Kyle Larson #42 +3500
Alex Bowman #88 +5500
Michael McDowell #34 +5500
Daniel Suarez #41 +6600
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +8800
Ryan Newman #6 +17500
Austin Dillon #3 +27500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +27500
Chris Buescher #37 +30000
Paul Menard #21 +30000
Ryan Preece #47 +30000
Daniel Hemric #8 +75000
David Ragan #38 +75000
Ty Dillon #13 +90000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +100000
BJ McLeod #51 +250000
JJ Yeley #53 +300000
Reed Sorenson #27 +300000
Timmy Hill #77 +300000
Austin Theriault #52 +400000
Corey LaJoie #32 +400000
Landon Cassill #00 +400000
Matt Tifft #36 +400000
Ross Chastain #15 +400000