2019 Drydene 400 Betting Predictions – Value Bets and Sleepers at Dover International Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Dover International Speedway this weekend, and in addition to being the second trip to “The Monster Mile” in 2019, Sunday’s Drydene 400 will also mark the beginning of the second round of the playoffs.
Big names tend to dominate at Dover on baseline, and that trend is especially true come playoff time. Of course, that doesn’t mean you can’t take a chance on some drivers getting longer odds to win this weekend, but I would limit your bets to drivers who are either in the playoffs or who drive for the powerhouse teams in the series.
With that in mind, check out a closer look at my favorite value bets and sleepers for Sunday’s Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway.
2019 Drydene 400 Betting Predictions: Value Bets and Sleepers at Dover International Speedway
Value Bets
Erik Jones (20/1)
His championship hopes came to an early end after his first round of the playoffs was marred by horrible luck and a penalty, but that doesn’t make Jones any less likely to reach victory lane going forward. He’s been particularly stout at Dover, finishing in the top 15 in four of his five starts while compiling an 11.0 average finish. Jones has also been getting better at the track, notching a fourth-place finish last fall and a sixth-place finish earlier this year. Eliminated from the playoffs, he can focus solely on picking up wins the rest of the way, and he has been good enough at Dover to get the job done this weekend.
Alex Bowman (30/1)
My favorite value bet on the board this weekend is probably Bowman. He has made three starts at Dover for Hendrick Motorsports, and he has led double-digit laps in two of them. In fact, Bowman had one of the strongest cars the May race earlier this year. Despite being forced to start at the rear of the field, he was able to lead 16 laps and finish second. The driver who won the race, Martin Truex Jr., is listed as one of the co-favorites at 4/1. Taking the runner-up with more than seven times as much profit potential doesn’t seem like a bad deal.
Jimmie Johnson (30/1)
While he didn’t make the playoffs, Johnson has been solid since the postseason began, finishing 11th or better in all three races. Yes, it has been a down year for the seven-time champ, but he is trending up just in time for a trip to his best track. Johnson’s 11 wins at Dover are his most at any track, and the same can be said for his 3,109 laps led at Dover. He managed a 14th-place finish in the May race earlier this year, and he has four top-10s in his last six starts here, including a win in the spring of 2017. If he is going to turn back the clock and snap his winless drought, Dover seems like the spot to do it. I don’t think he is the worst gamble at 30/1.
Sleeper Special
Daniel Suarez (80/1)
Suarez is still looking for his first Cup Series win, but if he is going to break through in 2019, Dover is one of the most likely spots. In five starts at the track, he has never finished worse than 11th, posting a 7.6 average finish overall. Perhaps more importantly, Suarez showed some serious speed at the track back in May, leading 21 laps and recording 26 fastest laps. Looking at the drivers with long odds to win this weekend, Suarez has shown the best combination of consistency and upside at Dover. I’d roll the dice on him if I am looking to hit it big.
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2019 Drydene 400 Odds
Kevin Harvick #4 +425
Kyle Larson #42 +425
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +425
Denny Hamlin #11 +500
Chase Elliott #9 +600
Kyle Busch #18 +725
Joey Logano #22 +1000
Brad Keselowski #2 +1300
Jimmie Johnson #48 +1800
Erik Jones #20 +1900
Alex Bowman #88 +2000
William Byron #24 +2200
Ryan Blaney #12 +2700
Kurt Busch #1 +2800
Clint Bowyer #14 +3500
Aric Almirola #10 +5500
Daniel Suarez #41 +5500
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +9900
Paul Menard #21 +17500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +22500
Austin Dillon #3 +25000
Chris Buescher #37 +25000
Ryan Newman #6 +27500
Daniel Hemric #8 +32500
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +50000
David Ragan #38 +50000
Michael McDowell #34 +50000
Ryan Preece #47 +50000
Ty Dillon #13 +50000
BJ McLeod #51 +75000
Corey LaJoie #32 +75000
Garrett Smithley #54 +75000
JJ Yeley #52 +75000
Joe Nemechek #27 +75000
Landon Cassill #00 +75000
Matt Tifft #36 +75000
Reed Sorenson #77 +75000
Ross Chastain #15 +75000