2019 Consumers Energy 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Michigan International Speedway: The summer stretch of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls on this weekend with a return trip to Michigan International Speedway. The massive, D-shaped oval will play host to Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400, the third and final race at a two-mile track in 2019.
With its long straightaways and wide racing surface, Michigan has always been known as a momentum track. Drivers want to maintain as much speed as possible through the corners in order to maximize their speed down those lengthy straightaways, and in the past, this meant running up by the wall at times.
However, NASCAR’s 2019 rules package that limits horsepower was a bit of a game-changer in the June race at Michigan. Momentum was still crucial, but the reduced speed and increased downforce allowed most cars to hammer down the throttle for long stretches, limiting passing opportunities and making track position as vital as ever.
The end result was Joey Logano winning from the pole in relatively easy fashion. Kevin Harvick had the second-best car, and big names like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch all finished in or around the top five.
Yes, we have had a couple of months pass since that race, and teams are constantly learning ways to manipulate the rules package and improve their setups. Still, the trends seen at MIS back June are hard to ignore, and you have to feel pretty comfortable about backing the big names this weekend when placing your bets for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
2019 Consumers Energy 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Michigan International Speedway
Favorites to Bet
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
While he has never won a race at Michigan, it hasn’t been for a lack of speed. Truex has finished sixth or better in five of the nine races here since 2015, logging four finishes of third or better. He has also led laps in five of the last seven races at the track, leading at least 25 laps in three of his last five starts and more than 50 laps twice in that span. Truex finished third in the June race at MIS earlier this year, and spending so much time out front should translate to a win sooner rather than later.
Kevin Harvick (5/1)
His smooth style has made him a perennial contender at Michigan, and for his career, Harvick has notched a pair of wins to go with seven runner-up efforts. He has seven top-five finishes, including five finishes of either first or second, in 11 starts at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing, and he has led double-digit laps in seven of those races. Harvick led a race-high 108 laps in a win in the August race at MIS last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he defends that victory this weekend.
Joey Logano (6/1)
Logano is my favorite betting option among the favorites this weekend. Since joining Team Penske in 2013, he has cracked the top 10 in 12 of his 13 starts at Michigan, notching three victories at the track. More importantly, one of those wins came in the June race earlier this year with the 2019 rules package. Logano sat on the pole in that race, leading a race-high 163 of the 203 laps in a dominating performance. In my mind, he should be the betting favorite for Sunday’s race, but I will certainly take the little bit of added profit margin.
Big Name to Avoid
Kyle Busch (5/1)
It has been a long time since I’ve recommended avoiding Kyle Busch, but as great as he is, he has never been a dominant driver at Michigan. Yes, he has five straight top-10 finishes here, including three straight top-five finishes, but he hasn’t led more than 40 laps in a single race in that stretch. In fact, he has failed to lead any laps in 17 of his 29 Cup starts at MIS. Busch’s 17.9 average finish at Michigan is his worst at any track outside of the two superspeedways, and I just have a hard time betting on him at arguably his worst track when he is listed as one of the co-favorites.
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2019 Consumers Energy 400 Odds @ Michigan International Speedway
Kevin Harvick #4 +400
Brad Keselowski #2 +450
Kyle Busch #18 +650
Joey Logano #22 +650
Martin Truex, Jr. #19 +750
Kyle Larson #42 +1400
Chase Elliott #9 +2000
Erik Jones #20 +2000
Kurt Busch #1 +2000
Clint Bowyer #14 +2000
Ryan Blaney #12 +2200
Jimmie Johnson #48 +2200
Denny Hamlin #11 +2500
Alex Bowman #88 +2500
Aric Almirola #10 +4000
William Byron #24 +4000
Daniel Suarez #41 +4000
Austin Dillon #3 +10000
Daniel Hemric #8 +17500
Ryan Newman #6 +10000
Paul Menard #21 +20000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +30000
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +17500
Chris Buescher #37 +50000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +90000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
Ross Chastain #15 +100000
Cody Ware #51 +200000
Michael McDowell #34 +200000
Ryan Preece #47 +200000
David Ragan #38 +200000
Landon Cassill #00 +200000
Austin Theriault #52 +200000
Garrett Smithely #77 +250000
Quin Houff #77 +300000
Matt Tifft #36 +500000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
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