2019 Consumers Energy 400 Betting Predictions – Value Bets & Sleepers at Michigan International Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway this weekend, and Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 will mark the second and final trip to the two-mile, D-shaped oval in 2019.
Using the June race at the track as a guide, NASCAR’s new rules package definitely changed up the style of racing at Michigan. However, it didn’t change the fact that the combination of power and aerodynamics that it takes to perform well at the track plays to the strengths of the big-budget organizations.
When hunting for potential sleepers and value bets for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400, I wouldn’t reach too far. This is a track where I like to target the No. 2 or No. 3 drivers from the larger organizations. These drivers still have the equipment needed to get the job done but will pay three times as much or more to win as their superstar teammates.
2019 Consumers Energy 400 Betting Predictions: Value Bets & Sleepers at Michigan International Speedway
Value Bets
Erik Jones (16/1)
Jones is one of the hottest drivers in the series heading into Sunday’s race, finishing fourth or better in each of his last four starts. He has also cracked the top 15 in four of his five starts at Michigan, finishing as high as third at the track. Jones had a fast car in the June race here earlier this year, and he was running third when he had a tire issue that ruined his afternoon. Based on his recent momentum alone, Jones looks like a great value at 16/1, and the speed he showed at MIS in June only adds to his appeal.
Kurt Busch (20/1)
In terms of stats, I don’t think you can find a better value bet this weekend than Kurt Busch. He owns four career wins at two-mile ovals, and three of those victories have come at Michigan. Plus, it is not like he’s slowing down at the track. Busch was the runner-up in the June race earlier this year, and he has finished 12th or better in seven straight starts here, finishing sixth or better in each of his last three starts.
Ryan Blaney (20/1)
He has cracked the top 10 in all three of his starts at Michigan since joining Team Penske, leading laps in two of those starts and picking up a top-five finish here last August. Both of his teammates are listed at 6/1 odds to win this weekend, and Blaney gives you the chance to have some exposure to the equipment that has dominated at Michigan while providing a lot more profit potential.
Alex Bowman (40/1)
It has been a quiet few weeks for Bowman, but a trip to Michigan could be just what the doctor ordered to get him back on track. Not only did he pick up a top-10 in the June race here earlier this year, but he has really shown some muscle at the high-speed, intermediate ovals in general. He led 63 laps in a runner-up effort at Kansas in May, and he led 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland at the end of June. His odds have dropped thanks to some mediocre runs in recent weeks, and Bowman is a prime buy-low candidate.
Sleeper Special
Aric Almirola (50/1)
It Almirola had never had much success at Michigan, but then he joined Stewart-Haas Racing last season. He finished a career-best 11th in his first start at the track with SHR last June, and he bested that effort with a seventh-place run last August. It appeared the upward trend may continue earlier this year, but after finishing in the top five in each of the first two stages, some questionable pit strategy relegated Almirola to a mid-pack finish. The good news is that oddsmakers seem to have overlook the speed he showed in that race, and Almirola is available at 50/1 despite having a top-five car at MIS the first time around. He’s definitely worth a flier.
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2019 Consumers Energy 400 Odds @ Michigan International Speedway
Kevin Harvick #4 +400
Brad Keselowski #2 +450
Kyle Busch #18 +650
Joey Logano #22 +650
Martin Truex, Jr. #19 +750
Kyle Larson #42 +1400
Chase Elliott #9 +2000
Erik Jones #20 +2000
Kurt Busch #1 +2000
Clint Bowyer #14 +2000
Ryan Blaney #12 +2200
Jimmie Johnson #48 +2200
Denny Hamlin #11 +2500
Alex Bowman #88 +2500
Aric Almirola #10 +4000
William Byron #24 +4000
Daniel Suarez #41 +4000
Austin Dillon #3 +10000
Daniel Hemric #8 +17500
Ryan Newman #6 +10000
Paul Menard #21 +20000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +30000
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +17500
Chris Buescher #37 +50000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +90000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
Ross Chastain #15 +100000
Cody Ware #51 +200000
Michael McDowell #34 +200000
Ryan Preece #47 +200000
David Ragan #38 +200000
Landon Cassill #00 +200000
Austin Theriault #52 +200000
Garrett Smithely #77 +250000
Quin Houff #77 +300000
Matt Tifft #36 +500000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
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