2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets and Sleepers at ISM Raceway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is back at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) this weekend, and the main storyline surrounding Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacations 500 is the battle to make it into the championship race at Homestead next weekend. Two drivers have secured a spot in the Championship 4, leaving six drivers to fight for the remaining two spots.
With so much at stake, you can bet that the drivers and crew chiefs battling for the title are going to take chances on the track and on pit road. At a low-banked track like Phoenix where track position is crucial and restarts are wild, the added intensity and pressure could create some chaotic moments, and chaos can create upsets.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the title contenders win Sunday, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of championship hopefuls crash each other going for the win, allowing someone else to sneak in and score the win. Here are my favorite value bets and longshots who could make some noise in the Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix this weekend.
2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Picks & Predictions: Value Bets and Sleepers at ISM Raceway
Value Bets
Kurt Busch (25/1)
Busch is a former winner at Phoenix, and he has seven top-10s in the last 10 races here, including a seventh-place run in March. He also led 52 laps in the fall race a year ago before being wrecked on a restart. He has been running well since an early exit from the playoffs, notching four top-10s in the last five races, including three straight. For his career, 12 of his 31 Cup wins have come on flat tracks, so a track like Phoenix is a perfect spot to take a chance on him.
Aric Almirola (50/1)
He hasn’t been a factor for many wins this year, but Almirola is coming off a runner-up effort at Texas, and he had a strong showing at Phoenix back in March. He led 26 laps and finished fourth in that race, and Almirola also finished fourth at Phoenix last fall. He has finished seventh or better in all three starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, and he has four straight top-10s at the track overall. His resume at Phoenix and recent momentum make Almirola an attractive option at 50/1.
Alex Bowman (50/1)
Bowman has run hot and cold all season, but at his best, he was good enough to park the No. 88 Chevy in victory lane at Chicagoland. He’s also had some of his best runs at the Cup level at flat tracks, including a memorable run at Phoenix in the fall of 2016. Subbing for an injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. at the time, Bowman sat on the pole, led a race-high 194 laps and was out front late in the race until a series of late cautions caused him to drop to sixth. Still, 50/1 odds are pretty inviting for a driver who already has a dominant showing under his belt at this track.
Sleeper Special
Ryan Newman (200/1)
If you are looking to hit it big this weekend, Newman could be your lucky lottery ticket. With 10 finishes of 12th or better in the last 12 races at Phoenix, Newman is essentially a lock to be close enough to the front to try to steal a win. In fact, he did just that in the March race of 2017, his most recent victory. Newman’s last five Cup Series wins have all come at flat tracks, including two at Phoenix. At 200/1, you should at least throw a few bucks Newman’s way this weekend.
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2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +250
Kyle Busch #18 +300
Kevin Harvick #4 +350
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +600
Chase Elliott #9 +700
Joey Logano #22 +900
Kyle Larson #42 +1500
Ryan Blaney #12 +1500
Brad Keselowski #2 +2200
Erik Jones #20 +2600
Clint Bowyer #14 +3500
Kurt Busch #1 +3500
Aric Almirola #10 +4400
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +5500
Alex Bowman #88 +6600
William Byron #24 +6600
Jimmie Johnson #48 +8000
Daniel Suarez #41 +8800
Ryan Newman #6 +20000
Austin Dillon #3 +25000
Paul Menard #21 +27500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +27500
Chris Buescher #37 +40000
Daniel Hemric #8 +50000
Landon Cassill #00 +50000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +150000
Ryan Preece #47 +150000
Michael McDowell #34 +200000
David Ragan #38 +250000
John H. Nemechek #36 +250000
Joe Nemechek #27 +400000
BJ McLeod #51 +500000
Bayley Currey #52 +500000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
JJ Yeley #53 +500000
Joey Gase #66 +500000
Reed Sorenson #77 +500000
Ross Chastain #15 +500000